News Analysis: Thai political climate to remain unchanged with or without martial rule--academic

cademic

by Surasak Tumcharoen

BANGKOK, March 28 (Xinhua) -- The planned lifting of martial rule, which was enforced in Thailand since last year's military coup and the adoption of a constitutional rule to replace it, will only make a "slight" difference in the country's political climate, according to a noted university academic.

In an interview with Xinhua Saturday, Thammasat University's political scientist Pongkwan Sawaddipak said although Premier Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha had pledged to lift martial law and apply Article 44 of a "temporary" constitution, promulgated as an aftermath of the bloodless coup, will not make any significant change in the Thai political climate while the world community will still keep a watchful eye on political developments of the country.

Some analysts, however, have said that the lifting of martial law would be a step in the right direction and would be welcomed by majority of the Thai people.

The premier, who led the bloodless coup that toppled the government of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra last year, has said that he will take "full and sole responsibility" for the planned enforcement of the Article 44. The article is primarily designed to contain public unrests and other acts deemed detrimental to national security and peace and order.

Prayut, however, declined to tell the Thai public how soon Article 44 will replace martial law.

The academic said that unlike martial law, Article 44 cannot be enforced without prior and direct orders from the premier.

Under martial law, the military is empowered to arrest those suspected of organizing or conspiring to sow public unrests anywhere throughout the country. These alleged conspirators could be detained in military barracks for a period of time during which their attitudes towards the military regime may have been "re- oriented."

The detention of the suspected "troublemakers" at the Army barracks could last for several days or months before they could be released without criminal charges filed against them.

A number of former legislators attached to a once-ruling Pheu Thai(for Thais) Party, political activists and university students have been arrested after they apparently incurred the ire of the military regime by calling for a quick return to democratic rule.

"The world community will not see any significant difference between martial rule and Article 44 as long as freedom of expression is denied. The military will manage to keep the pro- democracy people silent, with or without the martial law," Pongkwan said.

He said that the only difference seems to be that the military may apply martial law at any time without prior approval from the premier but they cannot do so without the premier's specific orders under Article 44.

The premier, who concurrently heads the National Council for Peace and Order, the official name of the ruling military junta, earlier remarked that he had concerns over the possibility of public unrests if the martial law is lifted but that he still planned to implement Article 44 anyway.

Gen Prayut did not confirm or deny criticisms that he will finally lift martial rule under mounting pressure from the world community led by the United States and the European Union.

The political scientist said that even with this change, the world community would continue to press for a quick return to democratic rule in Thailand.

Gen Prayut had earlier implied that a nationwide election might be held in the latter part of this year or early next pending the approval of a permanent constitution by the Constitution Drafting Committee and the adoption of the needed political reforms. Endi