News Analysis: Civil war imminent as violence alarmingly surges in Yemen

Violence and chaos have been running high in Yemen recently. In the past three days, the mishmash of power-grabbing battles and terrorism-backed suicide bombings have come quite close to turn the country upside down.

According to the observers, the ever worsening security situations have been driving the country into a civil and sectarian war, which may go beyond its borders to put the entire region on the line.

The Islamic State (IS) militant group, which first emerged in Syria and Iraq, has begun to show its deadly influence in Yemen, another terrorism-ridden Middle East country.

The group said it was behind the serial bombings against mosques in Sanaa on Friday that left at leat 137 killed and 350 others wounded, mostly pro-Houthi Zaidi prayers.

Muhammad Abdul Salam, head of ABAAD studies and research center, said Yemen is rushing after Iraq in terms of sectarian conflict.

"Targeting mosques is something new to the Yemeni people who never fought sectarian war in the past. There are groups mixing cards and what is happening right now puts Yemen on the brink of real sectarian violence," Salam said.

CIVIL WAR IMMINENT

As the suicide bombers blew themselves up, the clashes between the Shiite Houthi group and forces loyal to President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi may trigger another war similar to the one in 1994 between the north and the south.

In the past two days, militia and security forces with support from the Houthi group fought the army in the south where Hadi stays after he fled house arrest by Houthi militants in Sanaa.

A warplane has tried to strike the presidential compound, triggering warnings by the UN that such military moves could lead to an all-out war.

Fuad Alsalahi, a political sociology professor at Sanaa University, said the development in the south, including the battles between pro-Hadi militia and forces loyal to the Houthi group as well as the arrival of military reinforcements and militia into southern parts, is a sign that a civil war has become imminent.

"Yemen is experiencing deepening power vacuum in the north coinciding with intensifying military action against the president, including air strikes targeting his residence and public threats. It is a war but yet to be declared and expanded officially," Alsalahi said.

Najeeb Ghalab, professor of politics at Sanaa University, said some factions are against constitutional legitimacy and they do not care about consequences of their actions.

Doubtlessly, some officials from the former government and the Houthi group are seeking completely control of the country and all signs indicate that they do not accept to be defeated, Ghalab said.

Anis Mansour, an Aden-based political analyst and writer, said the situation could develop into a civil war and may go beyond the border. "Yemen has become an arena for intensified regional struggle and it is likely that endless violence prevails disturbed Arab countries."

The international community has been pushing for reconciliation talks for fears that a civil war in Yemen may create power vacuum for violent groups to expand their presence and export violence to the region which has already been deeply gripped by decades of turmoil.

However, three years of on-and-off talks have so far failed to turn in any sort of substantial progress despite the fact the county is slipping into war.

SECTARIAN CONFLICTS AMID POWER VACUUM

With the IS group claiming responsibility for the bombings in Sanaa, observers believed that the country of Yemen seems to have joined the axis of the IS.

Yemen has seen conflicts in southern provinces since early this year, and if the IS joins the fighting, the situation will be much worse, observers said.

"In Yemen, factions are using terror in political struggles, not in their electoral propaganda but rather as a tool to achieve political gains, and this means Yemenis will not be able to eradicate increasing terror then," Ghalab said.

Right after the bombing attacks in Sanaa, the al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released a statement condemning the deadliest attacks in mosques in the country.

The AQAP, al-Qaida's currently most visible and active sub-group, officially condemns the bombings that hit the Houthi mosques and at the same time denies any involvement or playing any role in the that attacks, the statement said.

A senior Houthi official said the IS wants to expand its presence in Yemen, which has been in unrest since 2011 when mass protests forced the former government to step down by provoking sectarian conflicts.

Late last year, an offshoot of the AQAP said it decided to pledge allegiance to the IS, suggesting a growing clout for the IS group in the country, which could be taken as a setback for al-Qaida network.

However, it is believed that al-Qaida will not sit idly by to see its spheres of influence being gradually eaten away.

Observers also said as if power vacuum continues in the country, these groups will be further encouraged to engage even more unscrupulously with each other in bloody sectarian conflicts, while a civil war would become inevitable at best. Endit