News Analysis: Dutch cabinet in trouble after provincial elections

The outcome of the Dutch provincial elections makes it harder for the Dutch government to implement its plans and makes it more unlikely that the cabinet will continue until the next general elections in March 2017, political experts told Xinhua on Thursday.

Both Wouter van der Brug and Kees Aarts, political science professors at the respective universities of Amsterdam and Twente, agreed that after the losses of government parties VVD (Liberals) and PvdA (Labor), the biggest problem for the government will be the position of the PvdA.

"The loss of Labor had a reason," Van der Brug said. "Many potential Labor voters are dissatisfied with the government policy and don't recognize their left ideals in it. Simultaneously, the right won in yesterday's elections and it became even more difficult for the PvdA to present themselves."

"This situation is dangerous for the government," Aarts added. "Labor has lost much and that is interpreted as losing contact with potential voters. It is dangerous if that sentiment spreads to the party leaders. If that is the case, even the government can fall."

With almost all votes counted, the government coalition of VVD and PvdA has lost their majority in the senate, which they had together with the supporting parties D66 (Democrats), Christian Union and SGP (Christian parties). The five parties now have 36 of the 75 available seats.

The results of the provincial elections are of national importance because the members of the provincial councils will elect the members of the senate on May 26 this year. Therefore, the outcome of the provincial ballot indirectly decided the future senate composition.

The VVD maintained its position as the biggest party in the provinces (and therefore the future senate), but lost three seats, from 16 to 13 seats in the senate. The PvdA was the biggest loser, going down from 14 to 8. The Christian Democrats CDA got 12 seats, D66 10, the PVV (Party for Freedom) and the SP (Socialist Party) nine, GroenLinks (Green Left) four and Christian Union and SGP finished with five between them.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte remained optimistic and confirmed he would like to go on with this government until the next general elections, scheduled for March 2017. However, he also said he would seek new partners.

With a minority in the senate, the government needs to look for at least one new partner to get new bills approved. To pass law reforms a majority is needed in both houses of the parliament, in the house of representatives, 'de Tweede Kamer' and the senate, 'de Eerste Kamer'.

"I think it would not be wise to give one more party a special position," was Aarts' reaction. "The other parties will not be happy about that. I think they will play the card of national importance."

"Only GroenLinks and the CDA are possible new partners," Van der Brug said. "Both parties, however, have already indicated that each proposition of the government will be judged separately."

After having already pushed forward its reform plans on health care, pension, employment and education, one major challenge lies ahead, with the revision of the tax system still on the political agenda. "Many of the government's plans have already been realized in the past two years," Aarts said. "The renewal of the tax bill is a challenge, but it is too early to say whether that will be a real problem."

"This government already had to make many deals and that has not become easier," Van der Brug added. "The main problem lies with the left. The differences between the CDA, D66 and the government on a socio-economic level are not that big. The CDA has supported most government plans. The problem is on the left as Labor cannot sufficiently reach their potential voters."

"This situation with the PvdA could lead to the fall of the government," Van der Brug continued. "There is increasing pressure on Labor from its members and potential voters to present themselves more adequately on social issues, but at the same time there are fewer opportunities to do so because there is a clear right-wing majority."

For this reason, the professors don't expect the government to stay on until March 2017, but on the other hand it would not be beneficial to force new elections now. "Looking at the results of the provincial elections that would not be good for the PvdA," Van der Brug said.

"No party is interested in new elections now," Aarts said. "New elections will most likely lead to more fragmentation in the Dutch political climate. In the 2012 general elections, we had a clear result with two big winners, the VVD and the PvdA. I don't see a solution in new elections. The SP and the PVV are indeed in favor of sending home the cabinet, but they don't offer a real alternative."

"This government will definitely survive next summer, but to stay alive until 2017 will be difficult," Aarts concluded. Endit