News anylasis: Divisions affect EU actions against Russia, as summit approaches

Whether to prolong the economic sanctions against Russia, which are scheduled to expire this July, over the Ukraine crisis has been in the limelight in recent days, as heads of the European Union member states are to convene their regular spring summit here on Thursday.

"Leaders are expected to have a strategic debate on the best way for the EU to further support the peace efforts, including through restrictive measures," said the Council of the European Union in a background introduction about the upcoming summit.

Media reports had that European Council President Donald Tusk was discussing a proposal with the German and French leaders that would link EU sanctions on Russia to full implementation of a Ukraine ceasefire accord.

At an informal meeting of heads of state or government in February, EU leaders gave cautious support to the Minsk agreement. They indicated that they will not hesitate to take the necessary steps if the agreement is not implemented and the ceasefire is not respected.

In fact, as EU member states are at a different stage concerning the dependence of energy import from Russia and geopolitical relations with Russia, they show different views on the further possible sanctions against Russia.

Brian O'Connell, an Irish writer and former press officer for the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an article that, taking Ireland for example, its position is that restrictive measures against Russia, coupled with open dialogue and continued political and economic engagement with the various sides in the conflict, would offer the best way of creating the conditions for a breakthrough.

"Although Ireland says that the EU should respond with one voice, its stance locates it alongside Denmark and the Benelux countries, midway between the more hawkish stance of Poland, the Baltic countries, and the United Kingdom and the more cautious position of countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Italy," said O'Connell.

Some European leaders seem to believe they are immune from Russia. That is an illusion, said Judy Dempsey, nonresident senior associate with think-tank Carnegie Europe.

"The longer sanctions go on without achieving the hoped-for improvement in the situation in Ukraine, the deeper the divisions within the West will become. The more likely it will then be that some EU countries will block renewal of sanctions," said a research released in March by think-tank Center for European Reform (CER).

According to the report, the EU sanctions against Russia included three tiers of actions. Asset freezes and visa bans could be considered as tier one and tier two sanctions.

Last Friday, the EU announced to extend by six months until this September the asset freezes and visa bans on 150 persons and 37 entities, which were considered to have taken action against Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.

Following the shooting down of flight MH17, the EU in last July imposed economic sanctions on Russia, which could be seen as tier three sanctions. The moves covered restrictions on lending to Russian state banks, the embargo on trade in arms, an export ban on oil technology and services that could be used for Arctic or deep-sea drilling, or shale oil projects and export ban on dual-use goods. A new package of restrictive measures targeting exchanges with Russia in specific economic sectors entered into force last September, reinforcing the measures adopted last July.

"These economic sanctions are due to expire after one year, unless there is consensus to extend them," said the report.

In terms of business circle, some people also expressed uncertainty about the future driven by possible sanctions.

Frank Schauff, CEO of the Association of European Businesses in Russia, told online news site EurActiv that on the whole, if this situation continues, it will endanger the predominant position which the Europeans have in Russia, in comparison with other competing countries.

According to Schauff, Russia has from 45 to 50 percent of its foreign trade with the EU, and more than 50 percent of foreign investment in Russia comes from European sources.

According to the Council of European Council, it should further renew its support for the Ukrainian government's reform efforts and call for swift adoption of the already pledged 1.8 billion euros of EU support. And leaders are also expected to address the need to challenge Russia's ongoing disinformation campaign on the upcoming EU summit. Endit