News Analysis: Experts rule out imminent U.S. embargo, military strike against Venezuela

Ties between Washington and Caracas hit a new low earlier this month after President Barack Obama signed an executive order claiming the country posed a threat to the United States.

"The situation in Venezuela ... constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States and I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat," read a declaration, which might be seen as paving the way for a future military strike or an imminent economic embargo.

But political observers predict a U.S. trade embargo or military strike against the South American country is unlikely.

Venezuelan political analyst Alberto Aranguibel believes Washington won't pursue an economic or trade blockade against Venezuela, since it has more to lose from such a move.

"The U.S. would be the most affected by an economic embargo, because despite our political and ideological differences, Venezuela has continued to supply that nation with more than 1 million barrels of oil per day. That is a figure not easily be replaced overnight," said Aranguibel.

Oil expert David Paravisini echoed the views, saying new economic sanctions would be highly unlikely as Venezuelan crude supplies around 80 percent of the gasoline consumed along the U.S. eastern seaboard.

"Such a measure would be a blow to the U.S. also, because it doesn't have an immediate substitute for the continuous and secure supply of Venezuelan oil," said Paravisini.

While he doesn't discard an energy boycott from the U.S., Paravisini said the move would spark an immediate increase in oil prices and widespread discontent in the United States.

Certainly Venezuela would suffer from such a measure, said Paravisini, since 96 percent of its revenue derives from its international crude sales, and the U.S. is its No. 1 client.

"If an economic embargo is imposed on Venezuela, it would be the right time to turn to Russia and China to become our main importers ... and establish a new pattern," said the college professor, adding the downside would be that making such a change "would not be immediate and, rather, could take some time."

Aranguibel said geography would be a main consideration in making any changes to the trade setup, particularly for the United States.

"Venezuela can very well sell its oil to other developing nations or expand current partnerships where it already sells crude. The U.S. would have to look at more distant markets to replace Caracas's supply" in case of a sanction against Venezuela, said Aranguibel.

Top Venezuelan diplomat and political scientist Luis Britto said Obama' s executive order shows Washington's need to recover the political and economic influence it has lost in Latin America, particularly Venezuela.

"Venezuela is a constant concern for Washington, because it leads the political, social, economic and cultural integration of our region, which has distanced itself from policies like the Monroe Doctrine or the carrot and stick strategy to become an independent bloc of sovereign nations," said Britto.

All the three experts are convinced the U.S. wants to overthrow Maduro' s government, but not through a classic military intervention, as it did in Grenada in 1983, when it toppled socialist leader Maurice Bishop.

"The U.S. is trying to seek regime change in Venezuela by destabilizing the nation's economy and political climate, promoting violent street protests and supporting the local opposition in its coup plans," said Aranguibel.

Direct U.S. military intervention in Venezuela -- a nation "that clearly isn't a threat to its national security" -- would negatively affect Washington's international credibility, said Paravisini.

Still, Maduro has ordered 10 days of military drills, in conjunction with Russian troops and battleships, which started Saturday.

On the diplomatic front, the Union of South American Nations held an emergency meeting over the weekend and called on Obama to rescind the executive order regarding Venezuela.

Maduro has also urged Obama to opt for "respectful and peaceful" dialogue to address the differences between Washington and Caracas. Endi