News Analysis: Spring offensive by the Taliban very likely, says Afghan analyst

The armed militancy and violent incidents are expected to rise with the coming of spring when the weather gets warmer and snow begins to melt in Afghanistan, according to a respected analyst here.

"No doubt, like in the past years, the militancy would get its momentum whenever the weather gets warmer in Afghanistan," Khan Mohammad Daneshjo told Xinhua.

According to Daneshjo, the abduction of 30 people from ethnic Hazara region by armed militants some three weeks ago could signal that the Taliban and other armed groups in the country would step up their insurgency now that the cold months are over.

Up to Saturday, the government has failed to secure their release of the abducted Hazara natives.

Spring and summer have been known as "fighting season" in Afghanistan since the Taliban usually take advantage of the fair weather in attacking the security forces and civilians groups alike.

During winter, the Taliban are forced to dig in their strongholds and seldom launch anti-government activities.

The analyst, who is editor in chief of Abadi (construction) Weekly, said that if the Taliban renews their attacks, it would be difficult for the Kabul government to push through its peace agenda that aims to find a political solution to the continued crisis in the country.

What is very alarming is that many Taliban fighters have abandoned their Taliban outfit by wearing masks and replacing their white flag with black one signifying that they have joined the so-called Islamic State or Daesh, the ultra violent Islamic movement that have conquered large swathes of Syria and Iraq, Daneshjo said.

"Peace talks with the few aged Taliban leaders won't lead to peaceful settlement of Afghanistan conflict," the analyst said, adding that many young Taliban fighters, particularly the most illiterate and extremist ones, have apparently now switched their allegiance to the IS.

Daneshjo said that there are reports that IS, using the social media, is now actively recruiting fighters from extremist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan to join them.

Afghanistan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani has been striving hard to initiate a face-on-face dialogue with the Taliban. His unity government is trying its best to convince the Taliban to join the political mainstream for the sake of the country which has not enjoyed peace and stability for a long time.

With pressure from Washington, the government of former President Hamid Karzai also initiated some talks with the Taliban but failed.

Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah has announced last month that he was optimistic that a peace dialogue with Taliban could be started within days.

Citing officials of the Ghani government, the local media here predicted the holding of talks between the Taliban and Afghan government in early March. However, so far, the Taliban have not officially confirmed its readiness to hold face-on-face talks with Kabul government.

Conflicts and Taliban-led militancy, mostly in the form of roadside attacks and suicide bombings, that have claimed hundreds of victims, including unarmed civilians, have become routine in Afghanistan.

More than 50 Taliban fighters have been killed after the Afghan Army launched coordinated offensive against the insurgents in several areas in Afghanistan over the past two days, the Defense Ministry said in a statement released on Sunday.

According to the statement, dozens of insurgents have been killed and 18 others arrested since Saturday, a claim that has been rebuffed by the Taliban as untrue.

Zabihullah Mujahid, who claims to speak for the Taliban militants, in a statement posted on the group's website, said that, in fact, they were the ones who have killed and injured scores of Afghan security forces during the past two days.

Mohammad Akbari, a member of Afghan parliament and also a member of the government-supported High Peace Council that has been authorized to contact Taliban, said that the Taliban leadership so far has not showed any indication that it would agree to a peaceful negotiation with the Ghani government. Endi