News Analysis: Yemen on road to dual legitimacy that may split country

Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi received UN special envoy Jamal Benomar in the southern port city of Aden on Thursday as the UN is intensifying its efforts to salvage the political process and end the crisis.

During their talks, Benomar reiterated the U.N. support for Hadi's legitimacy and explained his efforts to move venue of the current reconciliation dialogue from Sanaa to another place that may help the embattled president to get involved in the process.

Meanwhile, Hadi called on all state institutions to move to Aden, which observers said may further deepen the unrest and split the country.

DUAL LEGITIMACY

After three-week of house arrest by the Shiite Houthi group, Hadi managed last week to flee to Aden, the capital of former South Yemen and a base of separatists.

He issued a statement right after his arrival, accusing that all decisions and appointments in military and non-military institutions, which have been made since Sept. 21, 2014, are illegal and invalid, and urged to end house arrest of Prime Minister Khaled Bahah and all cabinet members.

The embattled leader has since been organizing a bid to reclaim power, hoping to provoke widespread anger on the takeover of the government by Houthi militia.

Meanwhile, Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council Abdullatif al-Zayani who led a group of Gulf ambassadors visited Hadi on Wednesday, expressing support by reopening missions in Aden.

Saudi Arabia announced that it reopened its embassy in Aden on Thursday.

This international community's momentum coincided with escalating anti-Houthi protests by the public and boycott of talks by political parties.

Fuad Alsalahi, a political sociology professor at Sanaa University, said what is happening in Aden means Yemen currently has two capitals at the time when foreign countries continue to use local factions in their struggle, which will deepen the unrest.

"I think international and regional envoys will visit Sanaa and Aden because they have to. The most predictable scenario then is that Yemen goes like Libya, not exactly in violence but rather dual legitimacies," Alsalahi said.

Libya has two rival governments and parliaments after Islamist-backed militia drove the elected parliament and government to the east of the country from the capital Tripoli.

FAILURE OF TALKS SPLITS COUNTRY

Yemen's political parties have resumed talks on Feb. 9 under the mediation of Benomar to resolve the crisis.

Sources said the parties initially agreed on the formation of a presidential council based on the GCC Initiative, but dispute over the legitimacy of the parliament remains.

However, after Hadi fled to Aden and attempted to assemble his government that already received support from the oil-rich Gulf countries, the reconciliation talks run again into deadlock.

The General People's Congress, led by former President Ali Abdullash Saleh and has most of the seats in the parliament, strongly rejected Hadi's return to power, which echoes the stance of the Houthi group.

With fragile support of other parties that are swinging their position on the legitimacy of Hadi, Benomar proposed to move the dialogue from Sanaa to another city in order to involve the president in the talks.

Paticipants said the political crisis risks escalating into a full-blown civil war pitting regional, political, tribal and sectarian rivals against each other, as there is no way out.

Anis Mansour, a political writer and analyst, said the international community is concerned about the situation in Yemen, exactly after the Houthi group has tightened grip on Sanaa and all public compounds in it.

In the past two weeks, UN has extended sanctions on the people who obstructed the transition process, and called on the Houthi group to cede power and stop unilateral acts.

"We should not say it has become too late to resolve the crisis but rather all should be aware of the real problem here, dual powers and addressing the illegitimate one," he said.

"The international community is backing Hadi's legitimacy, so what about the Houthi status," he said. "Whenever the UN shows more care about Yemen, Houthis insist on acting against all. Hence, if the Houthi problem is not addressed effectively first, we will not see any progress," he added.

Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi gave a speech on Thursday night, during which he lashed out at Saudi Arabia, the biggest donor for Yemen and Hadi, calling on supporters to rally in Sanaa on Friday to reject foreign interference.

He warned of taking "strong and decisive steps" if political parties would not make compromise in the negotiations. Endit