News Analysis: One year on, Ukraine remains prey to tug of war of big powers

A year after a dramatic shift in power that triggered its worst crisis in two decades, Ukraine remains at a crossroads.

It could barely control its own fate, after falling prey to the worst tug of war between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War.

Following the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych, the incorporation of Crimea into Russia in March last year began to tear Ukraine apart, while a prolonged war between the Ukrainian government forces and the independence-seeking insurgents in the eastern region of Donbass has claimed over 5,300 lives and displaced some 1.5 million people.

Optimism was scarce on the so-called "Minsk II" accord, reached on Feb. 12 after a meeting of Ukrainian, Russian, French and German leaders, given the swift collapse of the ceasefire deal the Contact Group agreed upon five months ago in the Belarusian capital.

"There is no guarantee that the new agreement will be long-lived, because it is to some extent a replica of the September deal," Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of Russia's The National Defense magazine, told Xinhua.

A major member of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine is important for Moscow both militarily and economically, and the eastern Russian-speaking regions of the country have been historically under the sway of Russia.

However, pro-Europe parties dominating western Ukraine have shown a strong thirst for the European Union (EU) and NATO memberships, a move seen by the Kremlin as potential threats to its national security.

The new Minsk accord, brokered by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, cast a glimmer of hope on the de-escalation of the crisis, as the conflicting sides, under the deal, carried out a swap of war prisoners Saturday and were preparing for the pullback of heavy weapons from the front line over the next two weeks.

While the two European leaders have repeatedly called for a political solution to the Ukraine crisis, the United States threatened to arm Kiev forces with advanced lethal weapons and to impose new sanctions against Russia.

Moscow's economy has been reeling due to the U.S. and European sanctions already in place, as well as the plunge in oil prices.

The split between the traditional Western allies underscores their different interests with regard to the situation in Ukraine.

The United States would be the only winner should the crisis drag on or deteriorate, while its European allies would try to prevent any spillover of a possible conflagration in their neighbor's courtyard.

A whole week has passed since the ceasefire came into effect on Feb. 15. However, shelling continued in parts of eastern Ukraine.

So does the game of power. Endi