Spotlight: Experts urge national dialogue, reforms to de-escalate Ukraine crisis

One year after Ukraine's dramatic shift in power that triggered its worst crisis in two decades, local experts summed up the lessons learned from the turmoil and offered their suggestion for improving Ukraine's situation.

Well-known local political analysts agreed that nation-wide dialogues, economic reforms and constitutional changes that will serve the interests of people from all Ukrainian regions, are the key to resolving the crisis.

NEW FACES, OLD SYSTEM

On Feb. 22 last year, Ukraine's parliament voted to remove former President Viktor Yanukovych from his office after three months of anti-government protests against his rule.

After the ouster of the former leader and his government, demonstrators in Ukraine were full of optimism about the country's ability to reform itself with new authorities. However, their hopes and anticipations were not realized.

"One year later, we can say that the protests did not achieve their goals. Although the faces have changed, the system is still the same," Andrei Zolotarev, an analyst at the Kiev-based analytical center Third Sector, told Xinhua in an exclusive interview.

According to him, the overturn of the political order in Ukraine, which triggered heavy economic crisis and unrests in the mostly Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions, put the East European country on the brink of survival.

"The situation in the country is deplorable. Ukraine is now in a de-facto state of war. The economy is on the verge of collapse. Consequently, people's incomes fell dramatically and the situation in the social sphere remains in shambles," Zolotarev said.

The government is simply reacting to everyday challenges instead of developing a long-term reform program to settle the crisis, the expert noted.

"It is obvious that without deep and systemic economic, administrative and decentralization reforms, Ukraine is unable to survive. That is the major lesson that we learned one year after the shift of power," he said.

Zolotarev expressed his belief that Ukrainian authorities should learn from China's experience during the process of reforms, hailing China's long-term successful development model.

"Kiev should have a clear vision of the future and take a forward-thinking approach to the country's development. In this context, the Ukrainian government should learn the successful experience of Chinese authorities, who think about long-term development of their country for decades to come," the expert said.

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS NEEDED

As the new Ukrainian government has not fulfilled many of the pledges it made to the protesters in February last year, impatience is growing inside the country.

Ruslan Bortnik, a political analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of Political Management, told Xinhua that the government's failure to engage in dialogue with all regions, lack of political and constitutional changes and slow progress of implementation of required economic policies are the key factors behind the ongoing crisis.

"Many have expected positive changes in the country, but the situation took turn for the worse. Over the past year, the economic crisis has greatly exacerbated. Thousands of people died and millions have become refugees," Bortnik said, referring to the conflict in eastern regions that has killed over 5,300 people and displaced about 1.5 million others.

Given the rapidly deteriorating situation of Ukraine's economy with gross domestic product (GDP) plunging 7 percent last year, inflation at 24.9 percent and foreign exchange reserves below 6 billion U.S. dollars, Ukrainian authorities should take urgent steps to avoid financial collapse, the expert said.

"To fix the economy, the government should act immediately to root out corruption in administrative sector and trim the shadow economy, which is estimated to account for over a half of the GDP," Bortnik said.

To restore economy to health, the Ukrainian authorities should develop economic relations with its eastern and western partners, instead of relying only on deepening trade with the European Union, the expert believes.

"Although Ukraine has managed to sign an association agreement with the EU, which was one of the main requirements of last year's protests, it brought no significant positive impact on the economy," he said.

In addition to economic challenges, consolidation of the society remains the focal task for the government to address in the nearest future.

In order to return peace and stability, Bortnik said it is vital to launch an inclusive dialogue within the country.

He suggested that the strengthening of communications and mutual trust between different political forces, which represent all regions of Ukraine, will help de-escalate the crisis in the country.

"All political forces, including the opposition, must sit at the negotiating table and adopt a mutual solution to the crisis. Probably, it is necessary to adopt a new constitution built on new principles, which would ensure the freedoms of all people and their rights to chose language and cultural preferences," Bortnik said.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE AHEAD

The prolonged economic, political and social crisis sparked unprecedented uncertainty in the country.

Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategies, told Xinhua that Ukraine will face new political turbulence in the coming months.

"The poor shape of economy, political instability, balancing on the brink of war and peace, external threats, lack of reforms and corruption may raise the question of reshuffle of the cabinet or new parliamentary elections," Karasev said.

According to him, new parliamentary elections in Ukraine may take place at the end of the year or in the beginning of 2016.

The expert was also optimistic about a short-term outlook for developments in Ukraine, saying that the fresh Minsk agreement on Ukraine crisis by leaders from Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine will help ease the turmoil.

"The so-called Minsk-2 agreement gives Ukraine a hope for peace. Although it is not the final peace deal, it would give some time for the authorities to focus on economic development, financial situation, and social stability," Karasev said.

In the near future, the situation in Ukraine will "move towards peace," Karasev added, emphasizing that diplomatic efforts are the only instrument to resolve the conflict.

Another Ukrainian expert, Olesya Yahno, a chief analyst at the Kiev-based Institute of National Strategy, said that the Minsk agreement was the first, yet very important step that could bring sustainable peace and stability to Ukraine.

"The Minsk deal will not lead to a fundamental solution to the conflict, but will remove certain important issues from the agenda. The parties will exchange prisoners, and a truce would be established at least for some period of time," Yahno told Xinhua. Endi