North Korea: A critical moment for possible change?

As this door has been closing, North Korea has tried to open two windows. The first window it has opened leads to Russia. In Sept. 2012, Russia wrote off 90 percent of North Korea's US$11 billion debt to Russia as a sign of close engagement with the country. Early this year, Kim Yong Nam visited Russia and met with President Putin. Both countries plan to boost their economic relationship by signing economic agreements and negotiating a potential connection between the Russia railway and the railway system in the Korean Peninsula. After his UN General Assembly tour, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su-yong also paid a ten-day visit to Russia. The second window North Korea has tried to open leads to Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Abe, who has also become isolated in the international community due to his tough position and policy on historical issues and territorial disputes with neighboring countries, has begun to flirt with North Korea. In July, the two countries reached an agreement over abduction issues, and Japan partially lifted its unilateral sanctions against North Korea. Furthermore, there are rumors that Mr. Abe will visit Pyongyang in the coming months.

In addition to the above-mentioned moves made by North Korea, Foreign Minister Ri Su-yong also visited UN headquarters in Geneva last month and delivered a talk. The rare visit by a North Korean Foreign Minister is only part of the story, and his accommodating attitude during the visit, including on sensitive issues like human rights, matters much more than the visit itself. The North Korean representative even indicated that North Korea is ready for the resumption of Six Party Talks. What surprised all North Korean observers is that Hwang Pyong So, Choe Ryong Hae and Kim Yang Gon - North Korea's No.2, No.3 and No.4, respectively - made a surprise trip to South Korea for the closing ceremony of the Incheon Asian Games with only 24 hours notice.

In this round of "Where has Mr. Kim gone" speculation, the above-mentioned diplomatic "charm offensive" has been largely ignored. Yet these actions seem to have been taken with the intention of creating the impression that North Korea is not going to rely on any one particular country, and that it is ready for dialogue. North Korea has seemingly tried hard to break away from its isolation and seek the easing of international sanctions, and it has succeeded partially so far.

Still water runs deep. Regardless of what form Mr. Kim will appear in when he shows up again, his disappearance from public events might be a critical moment for possible change in North Korea's domestic and foreign policy. Are major countries concerned over the North Korean nuclear issue ready and well prepared for such a possible change? That is a question for Northeast Asian countries to ponder ever more carefully.