What Modi's victory means for neighbors

Modi faces an uphill task to deliver at the national level with hangover of Gujrat riots. The real test may not be economy but political and international issues, including management of relations with its many neighbors.

Most of Pakistanis have negative stereotype of Modi. They believe that he will indulge in communal politics like building a temple at the site of a historic mosque which was demolished by rightwing Hindu activists in 1991, and deploy more aggressive polices towards Kashmir, the Himalayan region in the north, divided between Pakistan and India. Both countries lay claim over the entire region and have fought two major wars and several border clashes since their independence from British colonial masters in 1947. Pakistan's major rivers flow from Kashmir and it is feared that Modi may increase building of water structures over these rivers to obstruct water flow and effect agrarian base of the country. Modi and his BJP also have issues with Pakistan and allege that several Muslim militants groups are involved in terrorist activities in India. More than 166 people were killed when about 10 militants attacked Mumbai city in 2008. India alleged Pakistan base Lashkar-e-Tayyab group was responsible and demanded action. It is feared that any terrorist attack in future may plunge the region into a major conflict.

It will be interesting to watch Sino-Indian ties under Modi. In the past when BJP was in power in 1998, it launched anti-China campaign to create atmosphere for nuclear tests. The party considers China as a rival and threat and will try to assert its military might in case of any untoward situation at the border with China. But the economic linkages with China are very strong and can help to improve ties despite border disputes and India hosting Dalai Lama. India gets upset due to increasing strategic ties between Pakistan and China but it can hardly leverage the equation. Its only option is to increase ties with the United States which shares its interest to checkmate the Chinese.

India's relations with Sri Lanka are also not smooth. The issue of Indian past support for Tamils militants hangs large over the ties and rise of Modi may not help. The immediate response from the people of Tamil Nadu state of India, with ethnic Tamil population, was negative as most of them in their Tweets had negative opinions about the victory of Modi. Sri Lanka has cultivated close ties with Pakistan and China over the past, upsetting the Indian policy makers. The ties with Sri Lanka will be further impaired if Modi tried to assert its influence on Colombo. Nepal is another key neighbor of India also sharing its border with China. Pakistan also enjoys good ties with this country, making it hotbed of regional rivalries. India would like to exert influence on Nepal like it does on Bhutan but Nepalese are weary of it and assert their independence, which often sours the ties. It will be interesting to watch how Modi's Indian treats this nation of over 26 million people.

The writer is Pakistani journalist and analyst.