The impact of Obama's spring East Asia visit

Advancing the "pivot to Asia", promoting TPP negotiations

Obama cancelled his trip to Asia last October due to the then U.S. government shutdown, casting doubt for some over his "pivot to Asia" strategy.

The Pivot to Asia, or Asia Rebalance, has been the foreign policy in the United States since Obama took office. When it was first launched, the strategy drew suspicion that the U.S. was intending to transfer its military force to the Pacific region to handle the challenges posed by China and potential conflicts in the Asia Pacific region. But what the U.S. is really interested in is the economic and strategic value of the region. In fact, the economic status of the region in the 21st century and the U.S. economic strategy in this part of the world have been underscored by Obama and his administration at various occasions.

A cornerstone of the "pivot to Asia" is the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) negotiation process. The multilateral trade agreement was first signed by Brunei, Singapore, New Zealand and Chile in 2005, and then attracted other nations in the Asia Pacific region.

The United States showed its interest in the agreement at the end of the George W. Bush administration, followed by Obama's active promotion of the agreement since he took office. Though a number of agendas were set to advance the negotiation, they were not implemented.

Besides tough negotiations with other nations, Obama also encountered resistance within the United States. He needs to get the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) from the U.S. Congress to complete the negotiation, but his efforts on Capitol Hill did not pay off.

A crux of the TPP negotiation is to reduce trade barriers, which the Democrats have been opposed to for a long time. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi have refused to grant TPA to Obama. Indeed, the President has amassed more support from the Republicans than in his Democratic Party.

What is more, with the mid-term elections around the corner, senators and representatives are cautious not to offend those in trade, labor, and environment bodies, to avoid losing their seats.

With pressure from within the United States and difficult negotiations with twelve other nations, there is a long way to go before the Pivot to Asia strategy garners adequate support. In fact, Asia was only mentioned in passing in Obama's State of Union address this year.

Obama's spring visit is designed to cement bilateral ties and resolve tough issues, just as the spring season symbolizes revival and resuscitation. But at present it seems Obama does not have what it takes to accomplish this. A wrong signal may be sent to the DPRK if the peninsular issue is put on the table in the ROK; the United States may be perplexed and China may be annoyed if Abe is mishandled; any discussion of the defense issue in the Philippines would further complicate the situation in the South China Sea; and China and Malaysia are both nervous as the MH370 mystery is still unresolved. Obama will need plenty of political wit to make his spring visit a success.