Lessons of World War I

A very real possibility exists that as the countries involved continue to push the extent of their actions -- and continue to probe for their adversaries' weaknesses -- eventually one of these controversies might explode into something bigger.

A major lesson of World War I is that political and military leaders have to have real plans for any potential eventuality. If a conflict arises in the East China Sea or South China Sea, how will they react? What kinds of "Archduke Ferdinand moments" might happen? Shooting from the hip will make the situation worse.

Countries should also do a better job of communicating between each other their positions and intentions. The parties in the South and East China Seas need to make clear what is standard operating procedure and what kind of actions are unacceptable, lest they cross an invisible red line.

The United States, with its interest in the region, needs to have a clear position on under what circumstances it will back up its allies in a territorial conflict. At the same time, America needs to be careful about the promises it makes. Trying to exert its influence in all corners of the world, American political leaders have recently made threats and promises that they have been unwilling to back up. With any promise America will either not follow through and will lose credibility, or will be forced to join in the battle, as with the countries of World War I that joined because of alliances.

It won't be easy to settle the territorial disputes of the sea in a fashion that is agreeable to all sides. Foreign affairs are rarely easy. Nor, for that matter, is there anything inevitable or even probable about a large scale war breaking out. But that statement only holds true if government officials and citizens work hard to maintain the peace. The problem comes about when, complacent in the belief that war is impossible -- or that their own country's defeat is impossible -- encased in a bubble of nationalism, people cease to make the effort.

Perhaps the lesson was summed up best by the character Edmund from the BBC series Blackadder Goes Forth when he said, "The real reason for the whole thing was that it was too much effort not to have a war."

Mitchell Blatt is the producer of ChinaTravelWriter.com and an editor at map magazine in Nanjing.