Regaining reform momentum

One may recall that the third plenum promised to grant farmers greater property rights. At the moment, it seems that this proposal is being debated fiercely inside the Chinese bureaucracy because it is technically difficult and politically controversial. Most local governments and bureaucracies fear that this reform would make it more difficult to requisition land or lead to effective privatization of land. Although the debate is unlikely to end soon, whatever compromise reached inside the Chinese state must be formalized as law. Specifically, land reform would require a constitutional amendment and significant changes in the “Land Management Law.”

To safeguard his reform, Xi also proposed legal reform that would make China’s local courts and procuratorates more independent. While the idea behind this proposal is forward-looking, putting it into practice, again, requires legislative action. Existing organic laws governing the courts and procuratorates must be amended.

Due to the technical complexity of changing these laws, we should not expect this year’s NPC session to pass the necessary amendments. Instead, we might see initial moves that will start the process. For observers, it is worth parsing the language of proposed changes and the initial reaction to such changes at the annual NPC session.

The second specific goal of Chinese leaders is to reassure the public that they are up to the task of addressing China’s unfolding environmental disaster. Even though environmental protection was not given sufficient salience in the party’s third plenum, the crisis of air pollution since then has elevated the issue to the top of the policy agenda. That is why the Central Leading Group on Comprehensively Deepening Reform referred to a report on major reforms in economic system and “ecological civilization.” The substance of this report is expected to be unveiled, or at least discussed, during the annual NPC session. To be sure, Xi and his colleagues face a high hurdle on this issue. Regaining public confidence requires not just more investments in environmental protection, but systematic changes in economic management and local governance. A credible strategy for responding to China’s environmental degradation will need to include strong enforcement mechanisms, strict accountability, and a vigorous role for the Chinese media and civil society.

Last but not the least, Chinese leaders would like to reinvigorate the impression that the reform package of the third plenum is on track. While the language of the various policy proposals presented or discussed during the session will attract much attention, the most important political accomplishment of the NPC annual session will be in the realm of public perceptions. Observers will judge the outcome of this session in its totality, not just individual or specific results. That is why the demeanor, tone, and body language of top Chinese leaders might be more revealing than the official communique that announces the successful conclusion of the 10-day conclave.

Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker ’72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College