News Analysis: Dramatic developments in south add to challenges in war-ravaged Yemen

Dramatic developments in south Yemen, mainly the formation of a supreme political leadership to represent south Yemen internally and externally, add to challenges faced by the legitimate government and a Saudi-led coalition backing it.

Observers said the latest move by the southern movement is a very dangerous rebellion if not a coup against the legitimate government at a very sensitive time.

It will have an impact on the government's performance and the efforts to end the Houthi-Saleh coup, observers said, with some suggesting it is rather serving the Houthi-Saleh alliance.

Yaseen Al-Tamimi, a political writer and analyst, said the latest move by the southern movement will threaten the project of a new united, federal Yemen which the government is seeking to establish by all means including regional and international support.

It is just one of fragmentation projects at this very crucial turning point and a major blow to the entire political process, Al-Tamimi said.

The latest developments in the south were triggered by Hadi's decrees firing ex-Aden governor who is now head of the supreme southern leadership and another senior official. Both men are reportedly receiving support from the UAE, a member of the Saudi-led coalition.

It is obvious some members of the coalition are involved in chaos in the south and "this makes the credibility of the coalition at stake," Al-Tamimi added.

"The Arab coalition intervened militarily to restore the legitimacy of the government of a united Yemen. If the southern movement goes ahead with its plans successfully, that means the coup on the legitimacy represented by Hadi's government will continue with support from parts of the coalition. But objectively, this is not correct," he said.

The southern leadership's top responsibility will be finalizing the formation of a transitional council within the movement's ambition to separate the south from the north.

The public in the south are angry over the performance of Hadi's government amid deteriorating basic services and security incidents and that boosts chances of the movement to push ahead with its plans.

However, observers argued there is no way for separation--not now, not later.

Actually, what is happening is that this movement is just taking advantage of the government being in exile and the failure to end a two-year war that has taken the country to the verge of total collapse, observers said.

Ahmed Noman, an expert at the Red Sea and East Africa Research Center, said it is not possible to declare or arrange for separation because the international community will not back such a move.

"The international community is offering all support to the government either directly or through the Saudi-led coalition. It will not accept any attempts to undermine its legitimacy or to threaten the national unity," Noman said.

Adil Al-Shuja'a, a politics professor at Sanaa University, said the southern movement is mixing cards.

"The UAE is there. But it is a political stupidity to believe the UAE has all decision in the south. Well, undermining the legitimacy of the government backed by the Arab coalition in which the UAE is a key member is self-contradiction--that will mean the legitimate reason for the Arab military intervention has ended," Al-Shuja'a said.

"Thus I think it is just a small but dangerous political fight at this time," Al-Shuja'a added.

Al-Shuja'a expected Hadi to face the move with some decisions in coming days in a way that will prevent any political escalation or social unrest.

President Abd Rabbuah Mansour Hadi held a meeting with advisors following the declaration of the southern movement and rejected the move.

Hadi, according to a statement published by the government-run Saba news agency, urged the members named for the southern leadership to declare a clear stance toward what is happening in the south.

If the southern leadership takes an effective shape, Yemen will then have three leaderships at the same time: Hadi's government residing in Riyadh and receiving international support, the Houthi-Saleh alliance in Sanaa and this southern leadership.

The continuing war gives each side an opportunity to play their own cards, but in the end foreign players or rather the international community should intervene and do something before Yemen slips into worst scenarios, observers said. Enditem