Roundup: Chicago agricultural commodities end mixed over week

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grains futures closed mixed over the trade week which ended April 28, as Central U.S. weather pattern weighs on spring planting of the crops.

CBOT corn futures ended near unchanged on the week with day-to-day trading trying to assess weather. The market is battling ongoing weak cash basis at the US Gulf and South America, which suggests the market is still looking for demand amid record world supplies, and a rather adverse North American weather pattern.

Analysts' work indicates that planting dates are not overly important in determining final yield, but if ongoing cool, wet weather doesn't fade soon, there is a very real risk of further U.S. and Canadian corn acreage declines.

Cool temps will push pollination to occur during what is usually the hottest part of summer. Ethanol margins are solid, export demand will remain intact in the short run, and a big supply/big demand will remain the feature.

Wheat futures at all U.S. exchanges scored a technical reversal this week, having posted new contract lows.

Funds hold a record net short position in Chicago, a near record short in Kansas City, and North American weather is concerning. Disease pressure will be elevated amid rainfall of 4-6" across Arkansas, Missouri and South Illinois; and freezing temps and snow will be common across West Plains this weekend. And a shift to warmer weather is not indicated. The Kansas wheat tour starts Monday which should help assess some of the damage.

World cash wheat markets are stable, U.S. Gulf wheat is competitive through June, and intermediate lows were scored this week. Spring wheat's premium to other classes is expected to rise on tightening North American stocks. Black Sea weather should be closely monitored with heat/dryness likely this summer.

It was another quiet week of trading in the soybean market that left futures moderately lower at Friday's close. Market news through the week was limited with U.S. planting progress near historical averages, while harvest progress in Argentina remains slow.

Brazil continues to export soybeans at a record pace, and China is crushing record tonnages. So global supply and demand in the near term is balanced. The week ahead looks to be focused on US weather, and the market will begin preparing for the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE) report that will contain the United States Department of Agriculture's initial new crop balance sheet estimates.

U.S. soybean planting progress through Sunday could be limited to just 10-12 percent as storms began moving across the Cornbelt at midweek, and have continued through the weekend. There are many parts of the North Midwest that have yet to turn a wheel. It's still too early in the growing season to worry about soy planting delays. Endit