Interview: Expected low turnout to bring new uncertainties to French presidential poll

An estimated high abstention rate in Sunday's French presidential election is likely to bring new uncertainties, Guillaume Indigo, an analyst at BVA pollster, told Xinhua on Tuesday.

This year's presidential contest "will be certainly marked by a quite low turnout after a quite strange campaign," said Indigo.

A string of surprises overshadowed the campaign. The twists started with outgoing President Francois Hollande's decision not to seek a second term, followed by unexpected victory of outsiders in both right and left primaries and fraud scandals that have tainted the bid of far-right leader Marine Le Pen and of conservative contender Francois Fillon.

"Normally, when election comes near, voters are more interested. But this year, it is not the case. Fewer people are expected to vote on Sunday compared to the first round in 2007 or 2012 elections," said Indigo.

Five years ago, the turnout was 79.5 percent in the first round. For 2017, the rate is expected to be between 72 percent and 77 percent, the analyst estimated.

"That is an important fact which may determine the election's result," Indigo said.

In 2002, a record abstention rate of 28.4 percent in the first round propelled the far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen's father, to the second round.

The result of this year's presidential contest is even harder to predict, said Indigo. "No one is able to say who will be the winner as many things could happen at last minutes."

As competition tightens, centrist front-runner Emmanuel Macron is seen to lead the first round with 23 percent of voting intentions, one percentage point ahead of his challenger Marine Le Pen.

Both candidates were down by one percentage point from a previous survey, BVA poll released last Friday showed.

Fillon, who lost his top spot in the wake of a fake job scandal, was in the third place neck-to-neck with hard-left Jean-Luc Melenchon, with 20 percent for each. They both improved their scores by one percentage point, according to the pollster.

Indigo attributed voter apathy to "an electoral offer which had been shaken by some candidates' fraud affairs which had little mobilized them."

In the mean time, "new actor" such as independent contender Macron, who has never held an elected post and whose policy is still untested, has added uncertainty.@ Macron was expected to win the run-off over whoever should be his opponent. However, a low turnout could throw a spanner into his way to the Elysee Palace.

"Macron is chosen by default. He had appeased voters from the Socialist Party and the far-left camp who will vote for him to block Le Pen and are not necessarily supporting his project. And useful vote is uncontrollable as voters could change their decision," Indigo told Xinhua.

However, a weak turnout could favor Fillon, as his supporters, majority of them being old people and retired voters, "are the most mobilized," and the most sure of their choice.

Eleven candidates are competing for the five-year French presidency. If no contender wins a majority of votes in the first round on Sunday, the top-scoring candidates will meet two weeks later for a run-off. Endi