Bull in a China shop

Success is a strange thing that has marvelous and strange effects. Beliefs become dogmas, confidence becomes conviction, fear becomes a conquest. It can alter the state of mind, and the alteration is proportional to the magnitude of the success. Many personal traits become amplified.

Following the recent missile test by the North Koreans, these considerations are something that key U.S. allies Japan and South Korea as well as sworn enemy of the U.S. North Korea seem not to understand. Everyone seems to be treating this as the same old song and dance.

According to a high-ranking defector, the North Koreans are taking advantage of the leadership transition in the U.S. and the ongoing political turmoil in South Korea to test the waters through this routine provocation. The missile tests are done, statements have been issued, stern warnings sounded, veiled and not so veiled threats made, assurances of unwavering support demanded and received.

Soon everything will return to the status quo until the next cycle of escalation. But with one major difference. Not many realize that the rules of the game have changed, and that the stakes are higher this time.

President Trump made his way into the White House against all odds. Unlike his dour and predictable predecessor who was a firm believer in statesmanship and rhetorical diplomacy, Mr. Trump has found himself in the White House with a somewhat understandable sense of hubris, having been elected to lead human history's most capable war machine through a combination of impressive campaign and image management, as well as the implosion of his opponents due to their own mistakes.

Add Mr. Trump's characteristic volatility to a region mired in a smorgasbord of deeply rooted, painful historical conflicts, present day territorial disputes, undergoing troubling transitions of power and adjustments to a multi-polar world order, and a potent recipe for chaos emerges.

The North Korean missile test is mostly symbolic in nature, more for keeping its own populace in adulation of their young leader rather than posing any credible threat to its foes. However, Japan and South Korea reacted in the same old fashion and immediately sought U.S. assurance and assistance in dealing with the issue. Such actions need to be carefully considered from this point on, as Trump is incredibly difficult to predict and frighteningly easy to cajole into taking rash decisions.

Also, considering the resurgence of Russia, a continuously rising and assertive China, great care needs to be taken by these countries in inviting a trigger happy superpower into a backyard with a great deal of complexities.

Since the U.S. is increasingly wary of China, it will look for and attempt to exploit every opportunity to enhance measures that seek to contain China, ranging from economic measures to deployment of advanced military hardware.

This could create a slew of problems, as it will come up against a China that will not tolerate military interference, instability and hostile standoffs in its backyard.

It would behoove regional leaders to understand that the situation has changed and that, in the present scenario, it would be a much wiser choice to use this opportunity to foster regional cooperation and understanding and turn to each other in containing North Korea tactfully. The consequences of turning to a friend whose only tool is a slew of hammers would be a poor decision in the long term - in a clash of the titans, there would be no winners.

Hassan Arshad Chattha is a digital media producer and analyst from Pakistan, and currently a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Renmin University of China.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn