Australia's wheat yield potential in decline due to changing climate: scientists

Australia's average wheat yields and scope for prosperity has stalled due to the nation's changing climate, scientists from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) said Thursday.

After the Australian wheat industry more than tripled in size due to technological advancements between 1900 and 1990, scientists have determined that wheat yields have stalled from 1990 onwards due to a decline in the nation's wheat yield potential, which is determined by climate and soil type.

The CSIRO's Dr. Zvi Hochman said the findings indicate a risk to the prosperity of the nation's wheat industry, which is currently worth around 5 billion Australian dollars (3.75 billion US dollars) annually - or 12 percent of the world's total traded wheat.

"Our results are a serious concern to the future livelihood of wheat farmers in marginal growing areas and to the Australian economy, as well as future global food security," Hochman said in a statement released on Thursday.

He said if current climate trends continue, it was likely that farmers would experience a drop in wheat yields, even if they keep up with the latest farming practices and technologies.

"We estimate that the recent average yield of 1.74 tonnes per hectare will fall to 1.55 tonnes per hectare by 2041," Hochman said.

"The 2016 season is expected to result in a 'bumper crop', however, our preliminary estimates show that yield potential in 2016 was about the same as in 2010."

The CSIRO said even though the study focused on wheat, the findings would be "broadly applicable" to other cereal grains, pulses and oilseed crops, which "grow in the same regions and same season as wheat". Endit