News Analysis: France's Le Pen looks to channel Trump in upcoming election
Xinhua, February 6, 2017 Adjust font size:
After Brexit and the new U.S. administration's tough anti-immigration political rhetoric, eyes are on France where voters are expected to chose their next president in a context of public discontentment and high terror alert.
Could Donald Trump's victory give an impetus to France's far-right National Front party, which has already shaken traditional parties?
"The impossible has suddenly become possible," far-right leader Marine Le Pen told thousands of supporters in Lyon, France's third largest town, kicking off her campaign on Sunday.
"Other countries have shown us the way. The British have chosen Brexit and the United States has chosen their national interest.
"The awakening of those nations against the oligarchies can become a reality and marks the end of an era," Le Pen told her followers.
Francois Fillon's presidential bid is in turmoil due to a scandal over his wife's job, and centrist Emmanuel Macron's policy is still untested.
Amid this, Le Pen portrays herself as "the candidate of the people", saying: "the divide is not between the left and right any more, but between patriots and globalists."
However, BVA pollster analyst Erwan Lestrohan said: "Le Pen may enjoy a boost in ratings but cannot expect a victory."
"The surprise as that happened in the U.S. election is not expected in the France because the two electoral systems are different.
"In the United States, the presidential election has only one vote, which Donald Trump won. In France, the presidential election has two rounds. This allows the voters of non-finalist candidates to choose one of the two qualified to block the other," he told Xinhua.
Continued terror threats and rising risks of immigration crisis give a boost to Le Pen, who embraces protectionism.
But the 49-year-old lawyer does not have a strong majority and enough solidity to win the presidential run-off, Lestrohan added.
In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of the far-right candidate and founder of National Front party, cruised to the second round after beating Socialist rival Lionel Jospin, prime minister of then president Jacques Chirac, a fact that triggered massive protests against the far right.
In the second decisive round, Le Pen failed to win with a poor score of 17.79 percent against his rival Chirac who seized a large victory of more than 80 percent.
Thomas Guenole, political scientist and professor at Sciences Po university, predicted the same scenario for this year's presidential race.
"The only one scenario in which Le Pen could likely win presidential election is if she faces an unpopular candidate from the right or the left in the second round, which is very unlikely."
In 144 "commitments" unveiled on Saturday, Le Pen pledged to slash migration, send homes all illegal migrants and impose taxes on the job contracts of foreigners.
If she wins the election, she vowed to renegotiate the European Union treaty, restore internal borders and local currency.
In 2012, Le Pen came third in the presidential race but had made it through the first round with an unexpectedly high vote. About 17.9 percent of 44.6 million French population cast their ballots for her. Endit