News Analysis: New opposition alliance poses challenge to Kenyatta's re-election bid

Kenyan opposition leaders have unveiled a coalition christened the National Super Alliance (NASA), vowing to stay united and unseat President Uhuru Kenyatta from power in the August elections.

NASA brings together four Opposition leaders namely ex-prime minister, Raila Odinga (ODM party), ex-vice-president Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Democratic Movement), former ministers, Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya) and Musalia Mudavadi (Amani National Congress).

Odinga, Musyoka and Wetangula had initially coalesced under the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord), on which they vied in the 2013 polls, with Odinga being the presidential candidate.

Mudavadi in the 2013 elections contested on his own but came a distant third after Kenyatta and Odinga in presidential elections.

This time round, however, the leaders have promised their supporters to nominate one of them to fight it out with Kenyatta at the ballot. A technical team has been formed to spearhead the process.

"NASA is conceived as a mass movement of political parties, institutions and organized groups. It brings on board groups including trade unions, the business community and employers, civil society, self-help groups, women and youth organizations, welfare clubs, transport associations, religious organizations, student organizations and individuals," said Odinga.

He added that NASA is a vehicle for an alternative accountable, responsible and responsive leadership that will restore hope in self-government among Kenyans.

Political analysts in Nairobi noted that the super alliance poses fresh challenges to Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto in their re-election bid.

"Jubilee Party, led by Kenyatta, would have to go back to the drawing board and strategize on how to overcome the new development.

In 2013, Kenyatta defeated Odinga in the first round, with many noting that if Mudavadi had not ran and eaten into Odinga's political base, the election would not have been won in the first round," said Henry Wandera, an economics lecturer and political commentator.

Wandera noted that with Mudavadi joining the new coalition, Kenyatta is confronted with two possibilities. First is not winning elections in the first round and second, being defeated.

Opposition is further riding on the government's failure to honor its election pledges including curbing corruption, creating jobs and lowering inflation, which now stands at 7 percent from 6.3 percent, with food prices being the main driver of the rise.

"There is a growing number of people including in Kenyatta's strongholds who feel dissatisfied by his administration and they may decide to vote for the opposition. This complicates matters for his re-election," said Wandera.

However, that may not necessarily be the case as Kenyan elections are extremely tribal, with voters rallying behind leaders from their regions.

So perverse are the ethnic fault-lines in Kenya that political leaders struggle to form alliances and parties that bring on board leaders from as many regions or tribes as possible.

The ethnic voting has made them not to worry of losing support from their regions even if they have not honored their promises to the electorate.

"Voting in Kenya is defensively and fundamentally an ethnic census," researchers from Michigan State University and the University of Connecticut, say in a recent study.

Siaya Senator James Orengo, of ODM, noted that the formation of NASA has given Kenyatta's supporters sleepless nights, with the ruling party operatives working hard to infiltrate the outfit to destabilize it.

Jubilee Party leaders are not resting easy with the new political outfit but they have vowed to defeat the opposition in the elections.

"NASA is out to divide the country with their activities but we will defeat them, regardless of whoever they choose to run against President Kenyatta," Aden Duale, Leader of Majority in National Assembly, said in a recent interview.

According to University of Nairobi political science lecturer Adams Oloo, there are high-stakes in this year's elections, with both Kenyatta and Odinga seeing them as do or die for him.

Odinga would be vying for the fourth time if he is nominated as NASA candidate Kenyatta who is seeking re-election vied in 2012 and came send after former President Mwai Kibaki. Endit