Spotlight: Not much hope for peace as Yemen leaves tragic year of war

Yemen is receiving the new year with not much hope about peace or an end to the catastrophic humanitarian situation.

The only good news after a tough year which has seen a fierce civil war, an utterly vicious Saudi-led bombing campaign and deepening crises is that Jordan is considering hosting talks between the Yemeni factions.

But even this news is not calling for optimism as the talks will be dedicated to discussing possible ways for de-escalation.

The talks are backed by the quartet on Yemen which comprises the United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Adil Al-Shuja'a, a politics professor at Sanaa University, said the talks supposed to be held in Amman means that one of the roadblocks to the peace process in Yemen -- the Houthi-Saleh alliance's refusal to go to Riyadh for talks -- has been removed.

"But there are two problems with these talks -- the first is that the quartet is saying the Yemeni factions will seek a deal for de-escalation, not an end, to the conflict; And the other is that it seems Saudi Arabia and its international backers are concerned about security on the Saudi border, not the war and its horrible consequences in Yemen," he said.

"Actually, foreign and regional players are working on a solution for Syria. Their main concern seems to be how to fight terror. They seem to be afraid that iif terror spreads in Yemen, it will add to the worsening situation in the region," he said.

Still, the most likely scenario in Yemen during the next year is that problems will continue.

Yaseen Al-Tamimi, a political writer and analyst, argued that all problems are expected to continue and worsen as there are not clear signs or goodwill to end the political stalemate and alleviate the catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

"The international community insists on the UN roadmap which I see can't solve the crisis because it somehow legalizes the Houthi-Saleh coup and weakens the powers of the legitimate government," Al-Tamimi said.

The internationally recognized government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia and the coalition it is leading, and the Houthi-Saleh alliance have rejected the UN roadmap and another roadmap suggested by the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

Both sides said the roadmaps can't lay the groundwork for permanent peace.

Ahmed Noman, an expert at the Red Sea and East Africa Research Center, expects the first six months of the new year will see a military escalation as all signs and developments indicate Saudi Arabia is determined to achieve a military victory.

"I think there will be talks but not productive or rather not real. Any talks would be like a cover for a military escalation by the Saudi-led military coalition," he said.

Noman also sees that the international community is now seeking to change the situation on the ground in favor of the coalition.

"The final statement of the latest meeting of the quartet on Yemen in Riyadh affirmed that Saudi Arabia's security is the U.S. security and that was a clear message about the main concern of the international community."

The legitimate government's forces with support from the coalition have controlled almost 80 percent of Yemen, including oil and gas regions, and such progress is convincing the international community to continue support for the Saudi-led military intervention, he said.

"Thus, the most likely scenario which I expect in Yemen next year is this: the government forces with support from the coalition will seek to take over the capital Sanaa, surround the Houthi stronghold and birthplace of Saada, and then liberate key cities where battles are continuing such as Taiz," Noman said.

TRAGIC YEAR

The civil war and the Saudi-led military campaign have been continuing throughout 2016, deepening all crises.

The factions have failed to reach a deal at talks backed by the UN several times, as no side has achieved a complete military victory even in the southern regions that are now run by the legitimate government.

Fuad Alsalahi, a professor of political sociology at Sanaa University, said the top reasons for the military, security and political failures in Yemen were the lack of an independent national project as all factions are obvious proxies and the West's manipulation of crises within their policy to incite and prolong chaos in the region.

"In all their fights, Yemeni factions struggle for quotas in power, but not serving the country. This is the ugly truth. The country has been on the brink of a total collapse or rather a completely failed state. Who will take the initiative to end the conflict and prevent further deterioration of the situation?" he said.

In this context, the political writer and analyst Al-Tamimi said there are several reasons for military and political failures during 2016.

"The government does not take initiative and depends on the coalition. That is a big problem because the government is the only one that is aware of what is should be done, when and how, while the coalition is supposed to be a backer," Al-Tamimi said.

"Other reasons included that the U.S. does not see the Houthis as the real problem. The U.S. is focusing on Sunni groups which are allegedly more dangerous than anyone else here," he added.

Noman sees that, however, it is not correct to say there were failures because every war has its well-built plans.

"The idea is that Saudi Arabia realized the Houthi-Saleh alliance has large equipment, resources and fighters, and then it has been busy with a war of attrition to break up the alliance and then achieve a military victory," Noman said.

TOTAL COLLAPSE

Since the civil war erupted, Yemen has almost ended up as a completely failed state.

Most of the country's infrastructure has been destroyed in the conflict, but the humanitarian crisis remains the worst thing here, as the UN data estimates 19 million people, out of around 27 million population, require some kind of humanitarian or protection assistance.

The number of the people in need has dropped from around 22 million, 82 percent of total population, but the number of those in acute need of help has increased by around three million.

Children remain the most vulnerable group in Yemen as the UNICEF and Save the Children estimate that around 1,000 children die every week from preventable diseases such as diarrhoea, malnutrition and respiratory tract infections.

The country's healthcare system is also collapsing, international organizations have warned, adding that only 45 percent of healthcare facilities are operational now, but coping with acute shortages of medical equipment, medicines and staff.

The embargo on Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition has deepened the suffering.

The conflict has affected all sectors in Yemen, resulting in an economic meltdown and the collapse of basic services and institutions.

All investments including foreign oil and gas projects that contribute more than 70 percent of the budget resources and account for around 90 percent of the country's exports have been shut down for two years.

The World Bank says the country's gross domestic product per capita fell by 50 percent between 2012 and 2015, and by 35 percent in 2015 alone. The poverty rate has also increased to more than 60 percent. Endit