News Analysis: Iran on zig-zag path to relieve from hardship

In the lead-up to the upcoming presidential election in May 2017, incumbent President Hassan Rouhani should address a number of major challenges still lingering in the consciousness of the Iranian society, Iranian experts said.

Rouhani won Iran's presidential election in June 2013 with a promise to end the period of economic hardship for the middle and lower strata of the Iranian society, to ease political tension in Iran's foreign policy and to get engaged with international interactions.

Now, three and a half years have passed and, to gather the favor of people in the next remaining months, he has to get to grips with the questions pertaining to his performance outside and inside of the country.

Iranian political experts believe that the president's responses should shed light on key issues, including the results of the nuclear agreement and its economic impacts, meaningful political and economic reforms inside the country, Iran's regional and international roles, and its interaction with the international community as the core slogans during Rouhani's presidential campaign.

FEEDBACK OF NUCLEAR DEAL AS ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

A few months after Rouhani took office in August 2013, Rouhani's Foreign Ministry was engaged in a marathon of negotiations with the six world powers to settle Iran's controversial nuclear issue, which resulted in the clinch of a deal in July 2015 implemented in January 2016.

The deal set limits on Iran's nuclear activities and allowed regular inspections of the facilities inside the Islamic republic. In return, the U.S. and the European Union agreed to suspend nuclear-related sanctions against Iran.

The public expectation was to see improvements in the economy and living standards as the natural results of the nuclear deal which the administration of Rouhani was enthusiastically talking about.

Despite the government's official figures of lowering the rate of inflation to single digit and dealing positively with the recession, people are still waiting for a touch of change and tangible improvements in their daily life.

The public opinion is seeking the response to this question of how curbing inflation and recession would solve the problem of unemployment the rate of which has increased from about 10.8 percent to 12 percent in the aftermath of the nuclear deal.

Saeed Hajjarian, an Iranian reformist political analyst, commented that an important challenge for Rouhani in the remaining time of his presidency is "to do his utmost effort to increase the growth rate to above 2 percent."

If this happens, "it would be as a tangible evidence for his economic performance during his stay in office" which can settle a number of social issues, Hajjarian was quoted as saying by Etemed newspaper on Dec. 6.

Besides, Rouhani should do changes in bureaucratic systems of administration to promote transparency and prevent corruption in payment regimes, Hajjarian said, alluding to the recent debates in Iran over the "unconventional salaries" of some managers in the government.

Another problem that Rouhani has to deal with is "to finalize new model for oil contracts to attract foreign investments," the Iranian political analyst said, adding that Iran has to increase its crude exports to 6 million barrels per day (bpd).

The Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) is the country's new oil contract model which has raised disputes surrounding the legitimacy of the contract.

And above all, most of the Iranians believe that the existing problems in Iran's international banking operations have almost remained intact in the aftermath of the nuclear deal due to the U.S. pressures.

They say that the international companies' fear of the U.S. punishments, in case of getting involved in Iran's projects, has dampened the investment mood and has created hurdles for companies' engagement.

"The United States has been obstructing any improvement in Iran's foreign trade and blocking any economic advantage that the Islamic republic could have derived from the post-JCPOA (or nuclear deal) conditions, thus, practically proving that containing Iran is still more important to the United States than the implementation of the JCPOA," Hossein Kebriaeezadeh, an expert on Middle East issues, said.

"The clear warning Iran has given to the West about rapid return to pre-JCPOA conditions, if the United States continues to breach its promises, shows that the understanding of Iran's moderate decision-makers of the nuclear case has undergone tangible change," Kebriaeezadeh was quoted by IRAN REVIEW as saying.

Although dozens of international companies have visited Iran since the summer of 2015 and signed preliminary agreements with Iranian companies in diverse areas of cooperation, many of them are still waiting for new developments in the relations between Iran and the West, particularly with the United States, to sign final deals.

These kinds of developments have resulted in questioning the benefits of the JCPOA, and without a doubt these have worked in favor of Rouhani's rivals.

REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CHALLENGES

Following the victory in 2013 election, Rouhani voiced interaction with the world and urged normalization of relations with the West, particularly with Europe.

Since then, hundreds of meetings have been held, and Iran has yet to repair ties with the western countries.

"Rouhani has tried to normalize the situation (inside and outside), but there are some who do not want for this to happen. This has been a challenge for Rouhani," Hajjarian said.

The most important challenge in Iran's foreign policy is the level of tensions with the United States, and this is persistently maintained by the hardline politicians in the Islamic republic.

The recent sore subject is the vote by the U.S. House of Representatives last month to extend the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) for another 10 years, which was endorsed by the Senate earlier this month and passed on Wednesday without President Barack Obama's veto against the bill.

The ISA was first adopted in 1996 to sanction Iran over its controversial nuclear program. The move by the U.S. legislators evoked a unanimous reaction by the Iranian senior officials as to the disloyalty of the U.S. officials pertaining to its obligation vis-a-vis the nuclear deal.

The U.S. move also played well into the hands of Rouhani's opponents. The principlist Kayhan daily called the outcome of the nuclear negotiations as the "disaster of JCPOA".

The endorsement of the bill by the U.S. legislators is "to seal it to its doom" and this "disaster" would be a disgrace for those who "ignored the supreme leader's warnings" about the un-trustability of the United States, the Kayhan head article said on Dec. 7.

It described the JCPOA as a "very costly and bitter experience" in which national interests have been ignored.

Another major challenge for Rouhani in the political sector is Iran's ongoing tensions with Israel and some Persian Gulf Arab countries.

In September, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel told Germany weekly Der Spiegel that "Iran could have normal and friendly relations with Germany "only when it accepted Israel's right to exist."

Also, Iran and Saudi Arabia are currently locked in a diplomatic row over Sunni-majority Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric, along with 46 others over terror charges.

The executions sent large number of Iranians onto the street, while some of them stormed Saudi diplomatic missions in capital Tehran and the northeastern city of Mashhad. Later, Riyadh cut its diplomatic ties with Tehran over the attack on its embassy, while many of Gulf partners either followed suit or downgraded their relations with the Islamic republic.

In her recent meeting with the Arab leaders, British Prime Minister Theresa May said addressing a summit of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Bahrain that Britain would work with Gulf states and would help them to nullify Iran's "aggressive" policies.

She assured the GCC leaders as being "clear-eyed" about the threat that Iran poses to the Gulf and to the wider Middle East.

Her remarks sparked harsh criticism from top Iranian officials and put at risk the newly mended tie between Iran and Britain.

On the other hand, the United States and EU have expressed "concern with the regional military build-up, including Iran's missile program."

In the statement issued in November, the Council of the European Union urged Iran "to refrain from activities which may deepen mistrust, such as ballistic missile tests."

Although Iran has dismissed the allegations of adopting aggressive policies in the region or contributing to the military race in the Middle East, the rhetoric of the Iranian hardline officials has threatened a moderate and supportive foreign policy that initially was sketched out when Rouhani took the office in 2013.

Even the reformists and moderates' gain in the parliamentary elections earlier this year has not been instrumental to rival out the institutionalized slogans of the Islamic republic against the United States and some of its allies.

The global propaganda against Iran's regional and international policies, in due turn, has discouraged foreign investors and economic activists from seeking business opportunities in Iran as they will remain sensitive to the Islamic republic's foreign policy risks.

Given these challenges, it is not clear how much they will affect Rouhani's power to tackle the issues in the next five months ahead of Iran's presidential election. Endit