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Vietnam reveals 3 economic growth scenarios in 2016-2020

Xinhua, December 19, 2016 Adjust font size:

Three economic growth scenarios of Vietnam in 2016-2020 period were revealed Monday by the National Center for Socioeconomic Information and Forecast (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Accordingly, for the optimistic scenario during 2016-2020 period, the country's average gross domestic product (GDP) expansion will be 6.85 percent a year, Vietnam's state-run news agency VNA quoted NCIF as saying.

The pessimistic scenario happens when the world economy and trade sharply decline, and the global financial system faces numerous instabilities. Domestically, Vietnam may see growing risks in public debt, state budget deficit and financial system, as well as leans on old growth model. As such, the country's GDP will grow 6.2 percent a year.

With the most likely scenario occurring in stable world economic growth, as well as Vietnam's improved state investment, progresses in policy management, legal procedures and investment environment, the country's average economic growth can hit 6.55 percent a year in 2016-2020 period.

Dang Duc Anh, head of the Economic and Social Analysis and Forecasting Division of the NCIF said Vietnamese economy is stepping into a crucial transition period with expectations in restructuring breakthroughs, economic growth model transformation and improved competitiveness.

During 2016-2020 period, the country's economy will get out of depression and start on a new cycle of recovery, forecast Anh.

However, in the long term, Vietnam will face challenges, including unstable and possibly increasing prices of important input materials (coal, electricity, oil), enhanced technical barriers against Vietnamese exports, limitations in national competitiveness and slow application of science-technology into agriculture among others, VNA quoted Anh as saying. Endit