Commentary: Hot springs diplomacy unlikely to melt ice on Japan-Russia islands row

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be the first Russian head of state to visit Japan in 11 years when he arrives for a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday.

The two leaders will first meet at a traditional Japanese hotel at a hot spa resort in Abe's ancestral hometown before another round of talks focusing on economic cooperation in Tokyo on Friday.

However, this "hot springs diplomacy," which Abe has pinned high hopes on warming relations with Moscow, is unlikely to result in much.

Instead, it might end up marking another burst bubble in Abe's diplomatic maneuvers, with an unresolved territorial dispute between Japan and Russia continuing to be a major stumbling block in their relations.

The prospect of Putin's tour could be largely undermined by a 70-year-old territorial conflict between the two countries over four small islands in the Pacific which are called the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia. The dispute has prevented the two nations from formally signing a peace treaty since the end of World War II.

Eager to improve his diplomatic legacy by breaking the impasse with Russia, Abe has tried to promote Japan's economic cooperation with the country to trade for Moscow's compromise on the territorial issue. In light of this, he didn't even insist on Japan's previous stance that it won't cooperate economically with Russia unless progress is made on their territorial issue.

However, Putin made it clear that Russia won't budge on the territorial issue.

Putin's recent remarks that efforts to reach a peace treaty with Japan hasn't gone down "an easy path" indicates that a resolution is still far-off.

According to the latest poll conducted by the Russian independent research center Levada, the overwhelming majority of Russians believe it is more important to retain sovereignty over the Kuril Islands than sign a peace treaty with Japan, even if an accord would mean access to new technology and cheap finance.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also said before Putin's visit that there should be no high expectations on a peace treaty due to outstanding differences on both sides, a stance which is sure to throw cold water on Japanese expectations that a breakthrough on the islands is likely during the visit.

Meanwhile, another issue that obstructs bilateral relations is the sanctions Japan and its western allies slapped on Russia following Russia's takeover of Crimea.

"Japan has joined the sanctions against the Russian Federation. How are we going to further economic relations to a higher level under the sanctions regime?" Putin has said.

Moreover, Japan is considering the deployment of U.S.'s THAAD anti-ballistic missile system on its soil, and a committee has already been set up to examine the pros and cons of the interceptor system.

The move will surely meet strong opposition from Kremlin since deploying THAAD would allow Japan to monitor Russia's military movements in some areas of the Far East and intercept Russia's Bastion and Bal missiles deployed on the disputed islands.

Abe's outreach to Russia, which will hardly lead to any substantial progress on the territorial row, risks irking Japan's major ally -- the United States. Washington is feuding with Moscow over Syria and the annexation of Crimea, although Japanese diplomats have sought to ease U.S. concerns.

Washington has expressed its displeasure with the bilateral summit between Abe and Putin on a number of occasions in November, voicing concern that the meeting could send the wrong message that the G7 bloc of industrialized nations is not totally united in pressuring Moscow.

As the first G7 leader to welcome Putin for an official visit since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Abe will have to continue walking a very fine line between Moscow and Washington or risk upsetting both. Endi