News Analysis: Lull in LoC exchanges raises hope for falling tension between Pakistan, India

A lull in cross Line of Control (LoC) exchanges between Pakistan and India has raised hopes for calm along the LoC in Kashmir and working boundary after weeks of exchanges of fire that caused casualties on both sides.

The escalation started after a group of suspected militants attacked an army base in Indian-controlled Kashmir in September, leaving 19 Indian soldiers dead, with Indian officials blaming the Pakistan-based "Jaish-e-Mohammad" group and hurling accusations at Pakistan.

Although guns had been silent along the LoC over the past two weeks, there has been no let-up in diplomatic tensions between the two countries and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi renewed his criticism of Pakistan in his speech at the Heart of Asia Ministerial Conference in Amritsar, India, on Dec. 4.

Defense analysts in Pakistan are of the view that international pressure on India might have been behind the de-escalation.

Retired Lt. Gen. Raza Muhammad Khan said the international community intervenes whenever there is escalation between Pakistan and India.

"I think the situation along the LoC and the working boundary may have temporarily stabilized due to more casualties suffered by the Indian forces when Pakistani troops returned fire and put international pressure on India, to prevent an escalation in Kashmir, which is a dangerous flash point under a nuclear over hang," Raza, who headed the National Defense University in Islamabad, told Xinhua on Monday.

"Effects of Indo-Pak tensions could also adversely affect Pakistan's counter terrorism efforts, particularly in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). These efforts are linked to peace in Afghanistan," he further said.

It is unfortunate that such a tense relationship between Pakistan and India is having a negative impact on the performance of regional forums. The Indian decision to boycott a regional summit in Pakistan in November led to its postponement. However, Pakistan made the right decision to participate in the Heart of Asia Ministerial Conference in India this month, despite tensions.

The postponement of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, or SAARC, also deprived other countries of the opportunity to discuss cooperation in a variety of fields, particularly regarding economic cooperation.

As the SAARC summit cannot be held if a member country refuses to attend, there is a need to review its charter and amend this specific provision so that a single country cannot kill the activities of an important regional body.

If one country is allowed to hold a regional forum hostage, then other countries could do the same in the future. Bilateral disputes should not be allowed to undermine regional and international bodies and countries, analysts here said.

Pakistan-India tension was not only a source of tension in the region, but it was also felt across the world.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement he was "deeply concerned over the significant increase in tensions between India and Pakistan" and urged both sides to exercise maximum restraint and take immediate steps to de-escalate the situation.

He had called on the Pakistani and Indian governments to address their outstanding issues, including Kashmir disputes, peacefully through diplomacy and dialogue.

Ban's statement was important as he offered mediation if Pakistan and India agreed to the role. "His good offices are available, if accepted by both sides," the UN said in statement recently.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and its Foreign Office had welcomed the offer of mediation in view of the failure of both Pakistan and India to resolve disputes bilaterally, since their independence in 1947. India, meanwhile, has never accepted a third-party mediation on the plea that it would be an intervention in bilateral affairs.

Defense affairs commentator, retired Brigadier Sayed Nazir Mohmand, argues that the Indian leadership has realized that escalation with Pakistan is not in its interests and this approach has led to a decrease in cease-fire violations.

"I also think that Pakistan's repeated calls for de-escalation and calls for a diplomatic solution to the problems with India may have exerted some pressure on India to stop shelling Pakistani positions," Mohmand told Xinhua on Monday.

He also observed that U.S. officials including the U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter in his recent visit have encouraged the Indian leaders that tensions with Pakistan could affect the war on terror and efforts for stability in Afghanistan. Enditem