The Rage Virus reaches Europe

This year continues to be the most phenomenal year in geopolitics with the Italian referendum and Austrian elections, throwing up seemingly contradictory results confusing the world even more as to the future of the EU.

In Italy, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi staked his political future on a referendum for constitutional reform, just as Britain's David Cameron did with disastrous results.

Regardless of his intentions, what Renzi managed to do was polarizing Italian society and creating an alliance between the far-left populist Five Star Movement and the far right opposed to the Prime Minister's centrist politics.

Renzi inevitably suffered the same fate as Cameron – being forced to resign – and thus plunged the EU into further crisis.

In Austria, it was a different sort of battle. After the last election, where the far right came within inches of winning, this time the stakes were even higher. Norbert Hofer, the hip and handsome far-right leader, if he'd won, would have been the first on that side of politics to become head of state since WWII as his party was actually formed by an original Nazi.

However, he lost, showing that, regardless of how dissatisfied Austrians are with everything that's been happening in Europe since 2015, they won't go as far as electing any tainted with Nazism.

It is, therefore, important not to fall into the trap of linear causality as that won't help us understand the causes and the significant social changes happening around us. While it's tempting to analyze these two votes within the template of populists versus establishment, or globalists versus nativists, it's not strictly true.

Firstly, the Italian referendum fundamentally was not related to the EU, bur rather focused on the Italian political system. Mainstream politicians, including former prime ministers, were against Renzi. Nor does it really have any impact on Italian political stability and, therefore, market volatility.

Even though Renzi won the last election by somehow combining far-left and far-right forces, centrist forces still enjoy majority support from the electorate. Infact, a general election now would possibly produce a result similar to the Austrian one.

This, then, brings us to a sobering thought; that the forces which are against EU are not marginalized and are not on the extreme fringe. They are serious and stable, and have valid concerns about EU policies that won't go away or can be brushed under the carpet.

There are valid concerns in Italy about EU economic policies. Italy has also been in the forefront of the migrant crisis, being merely 200 km from the North African coastline. Similarly, in Austria, migration is a huge and valid concern. For countries that bore the brunt of rising crime rates, including rape, murder, terrorist attacks and an added burden on the social welfare system, the available choices are becoming starker.

To give an example: at the time of writing this article, a teenage girl, daughter of a senior EU official, who worked as a volunteer in a refugee camp, was found raped and murdered, and a 17-year-old Afghan migrant was arrested. Such crimes in Germany help highlight the vexing issue of migration which is all over the social media, and a Europe justifiably seething with anger.

There are a lot of problems for the resurgence of nationalism in Europe, but two causes form the forefront: a tribalistic backlash against uncontrolled migration, and an economic downturn for over half-a-decade that makes it difficult for many European states to absorb newcomers.

The Italian and Austrian votes show the rage virus clearly seen elsewhere has reached Europe, although it is not yet an existential crisis for EU.

The EU survives, for now. Bigger challenges will come next year when France and Germany go to polls. However, if EU officials as well as national leaders seem complacent and are yet to address the serious issues like migration and economy, that could come back to haunt them next year.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

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