TPP - dawn of a new era

Donald Trump is man like no other, a president elect who is prepared to drain the swamp of Washington's red tape. He is ready to go against the political stream with a barrage of legislative changes, the likes of which the United States have not seen since World War II.

The most contentious of measures will be the scrapping of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). With the stroke of a White House pen, in the presence of his advisors and on his first full day in office, President Trump will waste no time in dismantling one of the America's most prestigious agreements. The TPP will be no more.

Sending ripples through the political class, the President-elect Donald Trump will signal that he is a business man whose tough talking will be matched equally with definitive action, as he steers the USA in a completely new direction.

With a Republican majority in both lower and upper houses of parliament, Trump will be able to make changes to the TPP at lighting speed. Democrats are left scrambling, scratching their heads as to how they could collectively muster a challenge. With reduced numbers in congress, the Democrats are unlikely to slow down the Trump train.

The United States' first black president's legacy is now in tatters. U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter described the U.S.' symbolic importance to the TPP, comparing its significance to a new air craft carrier in the Asia. For the outgoing president Obama, his 8-year reign celebrated for health and trade was now coming to an end.

The TPP was set up in 2005, the Unites States joined in 2008 and all 12 participating countries (Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Peru and the U.S.) signed and agreed a trade agreement in February 2016. China, the super power in the Asian pacific region, was deliberately not included and not party to any TPP deal that ensued.

It will not be plain sailing for Trump; he could face a barrage of litigations. Private companies will file law suits against the U.S. government for losses in trade, reduced profits, lack of market access and reversal on governmental promises of enhanced commercial opportunity under the Obama administration.

The slashing of 18,000 tariffs, closer economic policies and a collective market of 800 million people were massive incentives for USA companies. Big businesses were vehemently supported by the Obama government; they were eager to trade at the expense of jobs and national security considerations for non-participating TPP countries.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that TPP minus the U.S. is unthinkable. The U.S.'s 250 million customers is a bridge the TPP is not willing to cross. If only the remaining countries are brave enough to sign a deal? A new TPP deal minus the U.S. as farfetched as it sounds, could be reached by 11 remaining signatory countries. Their collective spirit, to go it alone, could be one of the options for consideration.

The TPP is under pressure and member countries might be willing to compromise even further. On the table for deliberation could be a new deal that closely matches the requirements of the Trump administration that could be ratified by all 12 members. With so many balls in the air, President-elect Trump's mind appears for now, to be made up. Persuasion of a cosy new TPP deal appears farfetched and unlikely to be entertained by the president-elect or any of his advisors.

The TPP has global reach and influence, extending across the ocean in the form of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The TTIP calls for closer regulation and tariff deals to be enacted between the U.S. and Europe. The TTIP is an accompanying agreement to the TPP. It has been under negotiation since 2014 and due for ratification in 2019.

In the wake of the Brexit vote, the U.K.'s balance of power had shifted away from Europe. The U.K., a leading player and current contributor to the TTIP will be seeking to broker its own bilateral deals with countries around the globe.

The TTIP faces major challenges in Germany and France. Far right political parties are making a competitive electoral showing. They are posing a major threat within the political landscapes across Europe. For now the EU and TTIP agreements are in the balance.

Weighing the options, considering the possibilities and reviewing the global political landscape, China, a major power broker in the region, has no inclusion in TTP negotiations. China is poised and ready to make its claim and take a stance. U.S. authority in the region is seriously undermined. The vacuum left by the fall out from the TPP is one that China can capitalize on.

The U.S.' extended arm in the Asia Pacific with the TPP is designed to control China's mighty growth and superiority. Trump's cancellation of the TPP will signal the end of U.S. influence in the region and the dawn of a Chinese transformation.

Pacific regional governments will have a clear choice between China and the U.S. Governments will have to decide wisely, mindful that China will be in the region for eternity, while U.S. support and influence will always be temporary.

In the wake of a faltering TPP, Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the APEC summit in Peru, called on the regional leaders to be united and expressed his commitment to partnership and cooperation. China is now energized and motivated to re-start discussions on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This new trade zone in the Asia Pacific combined with the "Belt and Road" initiative will transform the entire region for ever.

Ayo Johnson is a British Journalist and opinion contributor with China.org.cn.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.