Spotlight: Turkey, EU unlikely to break ties despite glaring animosity

A war of words in recent months has prompted a call from Turkey for suspending talks about accession to the European Union (EU), but analysts do not expect a rupture in relations between the two partners given their mutual interests.

"Turkey and the EU would not cut off ties. Both sides are just bluffing," observed Faruk Sen, the president of the Istanbul-based Turkish European Foundation for Education and Scientific Studies (TAVAK).

Following a failed coup in July, the Turkish government has been widely criticized by the EU for mass detentions, purge of tens of thousands of public servants, and crackdown on freedom of expression and the press.

The strained ties between Turkey and the EU had further deteriorated when the bloc accused Turkey of getting away from democracy and EU values after some deputies of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party, including its two co-chairs, were detained early this month.

Kati Piri, the rapporteur on Turkey for the European Parliament, said Turkey's accession negotiations should be suspended, describing the arrest of the deputies as a step overstepping the mark.

European Parliament President Martin Schulz said late last week that the EU should consider imposing economic sanctions on Turkey.

In response, top Turkish officials have made it clear that Turkey has had enough of what they called EU's arrogant discourse and signalled Turkey could consider taking the country's EU membership bid to a referendum as Britain did.

Turkey accuses some EU countries such as Germany and Belgium of harboring terrorists and criminals wanted by it.

There are 4,500 terrorists from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Germany and only three of them have so far been handed over to Turkey, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said lately.

The PKK has been waging a bloody war against Turkey for more than 30 years in its attempt to establish a Kurdish state in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast.

Cavusoglu has complained of EU's "hypocrisy and double standards."

In his latest comment on Turkey's ties with the bloc, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on his way back home from an overseas trip on Sunday, reportedly said that his country is not constrained to the union, citing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an option.

Breaking ties with Turkey would be quite costly for Europe both economically and politically, according to Sen, who previously lived in Germany and headed the Essen-based Turkish Research Center.

"The EU would lose an important ally in the Middle East and it is the EU which benefits more from the Customs Union agreement," he said.

The EU exports to Turkey since 1996 are roughly 220 billion euros, more than the imports from Turkey, noted Sen.

For Europe, Turkey has served as a role model that demonstrated to the Muslim world that democracy and secularism -- values propagated by the EU -- are compatible with Islam.

Turkey, the only Muslim country aspiring to become an EU member, is also a sort of shield that keeps the instability of the Middle East away from Europe.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier arrived in Ankara at the beginning of the past week and tried to lessen the tension in bilateral ties.

During a press conference with his Turkish counterpart, he drew attention to the symbiotic nature of the relationship, saying "if we are aware that we need each other, we can resolve our problems."

The EU is Turkey's biggest trade partner, with the total trade volume standing currently at around 150 billion U.S. dollars.

With ongoing negotiations to expand the Customs Union agreement with the EU, Turkey hopes, as announced last year by Turkey's then EU Affairs Minister Volkan Bozkir, the trade volume will nearly double.

As to Turkey, its potential to attract foreign investments could be quite negatively affected in case of a breakaway from the union, many fear.

It is not feasible to cut off ties with the EU, said Murat Erdogan, deputy director of the Center for Research on European Union Studies with Hacettepe University in Ankara.

Breaking with the EU would simply double the problems facing the Turkish economy, he said, adding "at a time when the economy is so fragile, such a step would create serious handicaps."

Amid a serious economic slowdown and increasing unemployment, the government expects the economy to grow slightly over three percent this year, down from four percent in 2015.

As the war of words with the EU grew last week, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's deputy prime minister in charge of economy, warned that Turkey would be perceived as a third-world country should it break with the EU.

Both Sen and Murat Erdogan agreed "one hundred percent" with Simsek's comment.

Simsek was also quoted by Turkish media as saying that he was told by a Japanese official during a visit that Turkey would no longer be preferred by Japanese investors should it get out of the EU.

The Customs Union agreement allows goods produced in Turkey to be exported to EU countries with no customs duty.

That makes Turkey particularly attractive to foreign investors aiming for the huge EU market given the country's proximity to Europe and relatively low-cost labor.

A rupture in ties would seriously decrease the flow of foreign capital to Turkey from the EU, but would not have much negative effect over capital flow from Russia and China, TAVAK's Sen said.

Moving away would also take its toll on Turkish democracy, analysts believe, as Turkey would no longer feel the need to make efforts to meet EU criteria.

Yet another warning against increasing anti-EU comments from the Turkish government came from Turkey's former President Abdullah Gul.

Gul noted that Turkey achieved its biggest economic growth when the accession process gained momentum. In his address to Turkish business people last week, he said "Turkey could hardly get a million dollars in foreign investment before the year 2002 ... After we went ahead with reforms (in line with EU criteria), as much as 25-28 billion dollars came in foreign investment a year."

Gul was the first prime minister of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party government which has been in power since the end of 2002.

Turkey's economy suffers from serious savings gap and is dependent on foreign capital for investments. Nearly 70 percent of all the foreign investors in Turkey are from EU countries.

Arguing the EU has a significant role in Turkey's increasing attractiveness around the world in the past years, Hacettepe's Erdogan said "Turkey would see its pull factor diminish in the eyes of the Muslim world and the Turkic republics."

As Turkey's top diplomat, Cavusoglu also acknowledged that both the EU and Turkey need each other.

Some argue that Turkey should work to knit closer ties with countries in Eurasia like Russia and China while maintaining economic ties with the EU without becoming a part of it.

"We should limit our ties with the EU to economy and trade," Hasan Unal, the head of the Department of International Relations at the Ankara-based Atilim University, said on Halk TV.

Unal, who favors a membership with a special status for Turkey in the EU instead of a full membership, also believes the Customs Union agreement should be transformed into a sort of free trade deal.

Turkey has rarely received any support from EU countries regarding major domestic and foreign policy problems such as the Cyprus issue and the fight against the PKK.

Another issue which is sure to undermine not only Turkey-EU ties but also the relationship with the Council of Europe is the Turkish government's move to reinstate death penalty.

Turkey would find itself kicked out of both institutions if capital punishment is reintroduced, analysts say.

"I can't figure out why such a risk is being taken," commented Hacettepe's Erdogan.

Turkey, which applied to join the EU in 1987 and started the accession talks in 2005, finds itself still in the waiting room while Poland, Hungary, Romania and others were granted full membership years ago.

According to a survey by TAVAK in September, support for EU membership is as low as 22 percent among Turks, a sharp fall from 44 percent in 2013. Endit