Spotlight: Al-Raqqa operation continues amid Ankara's distrust of Washington and possible Turkish-Syrian Kurds clashes

One week after the operation began to retake al-Raqqa from the so-called Islamic State (IS), Turkey still has misgivings about the U.S. handling of the fighting against the militant group both in Syria and Iraq, while a Turkish confrontation with the Syrian Kurds is not ruled out.

Ankara is concerned that Washington is trying to create a Kurdish entity along the Turkish border in northern Syria by using the IS as a tool.

The fact that Turkish officials have often brought up the issue of weapons supplied by the U.S. to the Kurdish YPG is proof enough about the confidence crisis, observed Hasan Unal, the head of the Department of International Relations at the Ankara-based Atilim University.

"Every joint operation the U.S. and the YPG will conduct will serve to increase the current confidence crisis," he said.

Many towns and villages originally captured by the IS in civil war-torn Syria and Iraq were later liberated by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) outlawed by Turkey or the People's Protection Units (YPG), seen by Ankara as PKK's Syrian offshoot.

The PKK has been waging a bloody war against Turkey to carve out an independent Kurdistan in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast for more than 30 years.

The Western world is using the YPG as an apparat while justifying its position through the IS, Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency quoted Abdullah Agar, a security analyst who was a member of the special forces, as saying.

Despite Turkey's strong opposition to U.S. cooperation with the YPG, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched on Nov. 6 an operation to reclaim al-Raqqa.

The SDF is composed to a very large extent by members of the YPG.

The U.S. strategy is to put in place a Kurdish corridor, which it has failed to forge in northern Syria, from the south through the al-Raqqa operation, Naci Bestepe, a former major general of the Turkish Armed Forces, said on Ulusal TV channel.

According to Unal, the U.S. used the IS threat as a pretext to be able to legitimately provide weapons to the Kurdish peshmerga and the PKK in Iraq and the YPG in Syria.

General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, paid last Sunday an unexpected visit to Ankara and had a nearly five-hour meeting with his Turkish counterpart.

Dunford said following the meeting, to appease Ankara's opposition, that the YPG will simply isolate al-Raqqa and not move to seize it.

Dunford was quoted on the Pentagon website as saying, "the coalition and Turkey will work together on the long-term plan for seizing, holding and governing al-Raqqa."

Arab elements will be included in the al-Raqqa operation, the U.S. stated.

The Turkish government has revealed on several occasions, following Dunford's visit, its misgivings about the U.S. keeping its promise about the YPG, which Washington sees as its ground force in Syria.

While affirming that Turkey was assured by the U.S. that the YPG would only join efforts to lay siege to al-Raqqa, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that his country would take its own measures on the ground of Washington's failure to keep its earlier promise of keeping the YPG out of the town of Manbij in northern Syria.

Cavusoglu also said that Turkey is aware of the U.S. providing weapons to the YPG and that some of those weapons were seized in Turkey from the PKK.

Turkey seems to be enjoying the bone thrown by the U.S., Bestepe commented on television, arguing Washington could be trying to buy time.

In an earlier statement made a week ago, SDF spokesman Talal Sello said the forces were provided by the U.S. with new weapons, including anti-tank missiles, ahead of the al-Raqqa operation. He also said the SDF would attempt to take control of the city after first isolating it.

Turkey had proposed earlier to the U.S. to jointly conduct the al-Raqqa operation on condition that the YPG is kept out of the offensive.

Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus warned at the beginning of the past week that "the use of non-Arab forces to liberate al-Raqqa will not contribute to peace."

Al-Raqqa, which is the de-facto IS capital, is totally inhabited by Arabs.

Turkey would not like to see al-Raqqa to be governed by non-Arabs, said Kurtulmus.

Since Syria was plunged into chaos in 2011, the YPG has secured three autonomous cantons, two of which are connected, along the Turkish border.

Turkish calls to the U.S. that the YPG forces should not cross the Euphrates River to the west went unheeded and in early August, the Kurdish militia, backed by the U.S.-led coalition forces, captured the town of Manbij from the IS.

The town, which lies about 30 kilometers to the west of the Euphrates, is strategically important to unite the two Kurdish cantons on the eastern part of the river with the Afrin canton in northwestern Syria.

In response, Turkey launched in late August a so-called Euphrates Shield Operation to stop the YPG advance while at the same time to clear the area near its border of the IS militants.

Turkish tanks and some members of the Turkish special forces, backed by some rebel groups, entered Syria and are currently pushing to close in upon al-Bab, a town under IS control.

By capturing al-Bab, which lies to the west of Manbij, Turkey aims to block the YPG's way to Afrin which borders Turkey's Hatay province.

Turkey is concerned that the emergence of an independent Kurdish region near its border may whet the appetite of its own Kurds.

Turkey has long demanded that the YPG elements in Manbij leave the town, but its calls have fallen on deaf U.S. ears so far.

Foreign Minister Cavusoglu's remarks earlier in the week reveal Turkey's growing distrust of the U.S. as an ally.

Noting the U.S. had promised that the YPG would withdraw to the east of the Euphrates, he said, "we know around 200 YPG members have still not left Manbij, and we are saying to our U.S. counterparts 'Keep your promise ... You are losing your credibility in this way. Either you cannot make 200 YPG members toe the line or you do not want them to leave.'"

Faruk Logoglu, a retired diplomat who held top posts in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, is of the opinion that the YPG issue between Turkey and the U.S. is for now suspended following U.S. acceptance of the use of Arab rebel groups in the seizure of al-Raqqa.

As to the Manbij issue, Logoglu believes that it will become clear after the operations in Mosul and Raqqa come to an end.

Turkey is concerned that the advanced weapons systems, like the anti-tank missiles provided to the YPG, could also be used against the Turkish forces in case of a confrontation.

A confrontation on a larger scale is not out of the question, considering Turkey has already fired on some YPG elements in its Euphrates Shield Operation.

"The possibility of a clash on the Syrian soil between the Turkish forces and the YPG is present at all times," remarked Unal from Atilim University.

According to Unal, should the YPG capture al-Raqqa and attempt to carry out an ethnic cleansing against Arabs in a bid to place the area under Kurdish control, that may well set the stage for a clash.

If Turkey considers eliminating the YPG forces in the Afrin canton, against which Turkey has so far taken no action, that would also mean a clash.

Some analysts argue that Turkey should not only capture al-Bab, but also drive the YPG from Afrin and Manbij.

"The Euphrates Shield should advance towards Afrin," commented Rafet Aslantas, the director of the Ankara-based think tank Anka Institute.

According to Aslantas, who was an officer with the Turkish Armed Forces, Turkey should focus on the operation in Syria where its military is already on the ground rather than on the ongoing battle for Mosul in Iraq.

Turkey's demand for being part of the Mosul campaign against the IS was rejected by the Iraqi government.

Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik said last weekend that Turkey would not tolerate any developments in al-Raqqa and Mosul that pose a threat to Turkey's security.

Isik's remarks came after Turkey deployed a large number of tanks and soldiers on the Iraqi border as the Iraqi army is fighting to drive the IS from Mosul.

Turkey already declared as its redlines the PKK's getting a base in Iraq's Sinjar and any attempt of ethnic cleansing or violence against Sunni Arabs and Turkmens in Mosul and Tal Afar.

Tal Afar, a town to the west of Mosul in northern Iraq, is currently under IS control.

Borders could change in the region following the ongoing civil wars in Iraq and Syria, as many argue it will be difficult for the two countries to remain united as a single entity when the wars are over.

"If the Kurds seek independence, the region would get into a long and bloody period of clashes," said Lologlu, noting a lot of time is needed for the borders in this geography to get a definitive shape.

He feels that the region would feel relieved if a federal system protecting the country's territorial integrity is also put in place in Syria as in Iraq.

The Kurds in Iraq, who have currently their autonomous region in the northern part of the country, have long made it clear they aspire for independence.

Most recently, Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, said Kurds would talk about their independence with the Iraqi government following the liberation of Mosul.

The Kurdish peshmerga forces are joining the Iraqi army's Mosul operation.

The fate of Iraq also depends on the Iraqi Sunnis, on how they will react to the Kurdish demand for independence, and on whether they will also push for independence or agree to settle for autonomy in a Shiite-dominated Iraq.

Shiites make up over 60 percent of the population in Iraq. The country is deeply divided along ethnic and sectarian lines after the U.S. occupation in 2003.

Syria may break up into three parts if the Syrian government, supported by Russia and Iran, fails to regain control of the land currently controlled by the Kurds and the IS.

It is widely argued in Turkey that the U.S. plans to divide Syria into three parts: a Kurdish region along Turkey's border, a Sunni region covering the central and eastern parts of the country and a Nusayri region in western Syria currently controlled by the Syrian government.

"In the U.S. strategy, there is no Syrian nation-state. To be more precise, a divided Syria is (planned)," Ismail Hakki Pekin, a former three-star general who headed the intelligence unit of the Turkish General Staff, observed in his column published in the Aydinlik daily on Wednesday.

In September, dozens of Syrian soldiers positioned to fight the IS near the Deir al-Zor airport in eastern Syria were killed in a U.S. airstrike.

The U.S. said the planes wrongly targeted Syrian soldiers, having taken them for IS members. The Syrian government, however, argued that the air raid was conclusive evidence of U.S. support for the IS.

"In this region, all 'success' is gray, because every 'success' leaves lingering residue behind," remarked Logoglu. Endit