Roundup: Immigration control options after Brexit may restrict flow of skilled workers to UK: economist

Future models for immigration control into Britain from the European Union (EU) risk restricting the flow of much-needed skilled workers, which could result in a negative impact on the economy, a leading economist said Wednesday.

"The idea that if we have a new system that in theory lets in skilled workers from the EU will not in practice deter skilled workers is pure fantasy," Dr. Jonathan Portes, a research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), told a briefing on EU immigration for the think-tank The UK in a Changing Europe at King's College.

"We have seen this already; Martin Roth, director of the Victoria and Albert Museum, says he wants to pick up and go back to Germany because he doesn't like what's happening here," Portes said. He added there was a lot of evidence from high-value sectors that it is already becoming more difficult to recruit and retain high-skilled European nationals in Britain.

Portes said that immigration of EU nationals into Britain had peaked in 2015 with more than 600,000, according to figures for those registering for National Insurance numbers, a statutory form of health insurance.

The recent peak was boosted by the arrival of Bulgarian and Romanian workers, who under transitional arrangements had been unable to move freely into Britain until 2014, despite the fact that their nations had joined the EU in 2004.

This figure may now begin to fall sharply, said Portes. In addition, the impact of a sharp fall in the value of sterling against Eastern European currencies and a contraction in the labor market due to the Brexit may further reduce immigration figures.

"If this sharp fall does materialize, it has economic and political impacts. It will further exacerbate any negative impact of the Brexit on the UK economy, if there is a significant reduction in the UK labor supply," the economist said.

Once the Brexit has taken place, then visa controls or a points-based entry system will also deter skilled workers.

The issue of open immigration and uncontrolled access to Britain was one of the key drivers for the June 23 referendum decision when Britain voted by 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the EU. Britain intends to withdraw from the EU, a process commonly known as "Brexit."

However, Brussels has insisted that if Britain wants to arrange a single-market deal with the EU, borders must be kept open for all European nationals.

Ending free movement is not primarily about border controls, and free movement of Europeans will not stop, said Portes. These European citizens will be able to visit visa-free, but not legally able to take up jobs unless they already have a job offer.

This could increase the amount of illegal or irregular work, with criminals operating systems to bring cheap labor into Britain and exploiting those workers, who would be working outside the legal system once they arrive.

A new system will increase regulatory burdens on business and increase the bureaucracy of the state, both increasing costs for businesses, said Portes.

He added that Britain controls immigration for work purposes at the workplace, not the border. Unless there was a move to a visa system for work, the free movement of individuals would remain controlled in the workplace.

"You cannot centrally plan the labor market, there is a lot of randomness in human behavior. You cannot choose who comes here, you set the rules and they choose to come." Endi