News Analysis: After close race, Morocco's ruling Islamist party faces tough job building coalition

After a tight race in Friday's parliamentary elections, Morocco's ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) faces a tough process of forming a coalition government.

According to Morocco's constitution, passed in 2011 after the so-called Arab Spring uprisings, the winning party will lead the coalition government. The king appoints a prime minister from the biggest party in parliament after the election results are announced.

King Mohammed VI is expected within a few days to invite the PJD leader to lead a new coalition government for a second consecutive term, the first party in the modern history of the north African kingdom to do so.

While the PJD secured 125 seats out of 395-seat parliament, the winning of 102 seats by its main rival, the liberal opposition Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), poses considerable pressure on the Islamists.

Given the number of seats they have obtained, the two parties could make a comfortable majority, but a coalition between the two is unlikely as both parties have ruled out this option and the rivalry between them is very fierce.

"There will be no cooperation of whatever with the PJD," said PAM spokesman Khaled Adnoun, after release of the official results.

Accusing the PJD of "clinging to its ideological positions" and driving "radicalization" in Morocco, PAM leader Ilyas El-Omari had, during the electoral campaign, warning that another term for the ruling party would spell "catastrophe."

Before the polling, the ruling PJD also vowed not to form a coalition with PAM.

Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, from the PJD, said on Oct. 7 that his party's leadership rejects forming any coalition with PAM.

With both parties ruling out any coalition between them, the PJD potentially needs to partner with at least three other parties to secure a parliamentary majority.

A likely scenario is that the Islamists continue partnering within the same coalition parties, the National Rally of Independents (RNI) with 35 seats, Popular Movement (MP) with 27 seats, and Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS) with 12 seats.

This scenario, however, faces two difficulties. The first is that the RNI experiences an internal crisis as its Foreign Minister Salaheddine Mezouar offered to resign from party leadership following poor poll results, but the offer was turned down by the party's political bureau.

The second difficulty is that except the PJD, all of its partner parties have lost in the elections, losing a total 26 seats, and resulting in an uncomfortable majority of 199 seats.

The other most plausible scenario is a coalition that substitutes RNI with the Istiqlal Party (PI) which has got 46 seats. This coalition will make a comfortable majority of 210 seats.

However, previous cooperation between the two parties was not successful. The PI formed a coalition government with the PJD in 2011, but it quit in 2013 amid a dispute over subsidy cuts and economic policy.

Announcing its withdrawal from the government, Istiqlal spokesman Adil Benhamza at the time accused Prime Minister Benkirane of "acting like the head of a political party rather than the head of a government that represents the people."

So, the Islamists need to do more to woo potential future partners. Endit