Roundup: Polls show Spanish want to avoid third general election

Last week saw the Speaker of the Spanish Congress, Ana Pastor, confirm that acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will present his candidacy to be returned to office at an investiture debate in Congress on Aug. 30.

It will thus start a chain of events that is set to either conclude with Spain finally having a new government after eight months of political limbo, or with the calling of a third general election in a year.

The Spanish Constitution and Electoral law mean the timing of the investiture debate would lead to that third election being held on Christmas Day -- something unheard of in Spanish politics.

Rajoy has been strongly criticized for this timing by opposition groups who view it an act of political cynicism that shows a lack of respect for the Spanish people, while trying to blackmail the Socialist Party (PSOE) into abstaining in the investiture debate to allow him to form a minority government with the support of the center-right party Ciudadanos.

Ciudadanos and Rajoy's People's Party (PP) are currently locked in negotiations over the terms of that agreement, but the fact is that even adding the 137 seats the PP won on June 27 to the 32 seats won by Ciudadanos, Rajoy is still short of the 176 he needs to win a vote in the 350 seat Congress.

Rajoy will probably get one more vote from the Canary Island Coalition, but he still needs the Socialist Party (PSOE) to abstain in order to avoid a third election and so far PSOE leader, Pedro Sanchez has insisted his party will vote "no" to Rajoy's investiture.

A poll published in the pro-PP "La Razon" newspaper on Sunday indicated that 62.4 percent of Spaniards believe Sanchez should negotiate an abstention and not force a third election, while a second poll complied by Sigma Dos and published in the center-right "El Mundo" showed 58.8 percent of voters think Rajoy should be allowed to govern.

Some 45.9 percent believe that a third general election is inevitable, with only supporters of Rajoy's PP optimistic over the formation of a new government, while the general sense of frustration with Spain's leaders was reflected by the fact that 84.6 percent described Spain's current political situation as "bad" or "very bad."

The situation is further complicated by the celebration of regional elections in the Basque Region and Galicia on Sept. 25 and the PSOE know they will almost certainly lose votes to the left wing Podemos party in those elections if they are seen to allow Rajoy's to return to power.

That opens the door to the PSOE continuing to oppose Rajoy in the investiture vote on Aug. 30 (in which Rajoy needs an overall majority) and in a second vote, which would be held on Sept. 1 should he fail to win that majority.

However, some sectors of the Spanish press believe that once the regional elections are behind them and the PSOE Executive Committee meets to consider their results, that meeting could lead to a decision to abstain and finally allow Rajoy to form a minority government in October after 10 months of political stalemate. Endit