News Analysis: Signs of thaw appear in Egypt-Turkey ties, yet reluctant and conditional

Recent remarks of Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers indicated "reluctant and conditional" desires to normalize tense bilateral ties since the military removal of former president Mohamed Morsi in 2013, said Egyptian political experts.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Wednesday that Egypt is facing a security threat and a serious economic crisis.

"We don't want to see Egypt like that. We want to see a great Egypt," he added, showing Turkey's willingness to restore ties with Egypt provided the Arab country stops its crackdown on Morsi's loyalists, mostly from the now-blacklisted Muslim Brotherhood group.

"We did not want our relations to be sour," Cavusoglu told state-run Anadolu news agency, noting relations between Cairo and Ankara soured due to disagreement of visions on the Syrian crisis besides Morsi's military overthrow.

On Saturday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry considered Cavusoglu's remarks strange and contradictory despite some "good points," and rejected Turkey's interference in Egypt's domestic affairs and "the Turkish minister's elaborative evaluation of the Egyptian economic conditions."

Political science professor Hassan Nafaa said that the Turkish foreign policy is changing and that the country has started a new beginning with Russia and Israel.

"I believe Cairo-Ankara ties will be resumed sooner or later and it's just a matter of time," Nafaa said. "However, the situation is more complicated as Turkey facilitates the Brotherhood group."

He thought that a brave decision is need from either side, but there is not enough political will for that now.

The Egyptian economy has been suffering recession over the past five years due to political turmoil, leading to declining foreign currency reserves from 36 billion U.S. dollars in early 2011 to 17.5 billion dollars in mid-2016, with a budget deficit of over 35 billion dollars in the fiscal year of 2015-2016, 11.2 percent of the country's GDP.

The Turkish-Gulf dialogue has been resumed after a three-year pause due to tense relations after Turkey condemned the ouster of Egypt's Morsi and opened its borders to host his fleeing loyalists.

However, the Turkish government's tone towards Egypt has recently changed, making reconciliation possible, especially as it is pushed by Saudi Arabia and its affiliates.

"It's in Egypt's favor to have good relations with all regional powers, especially those with political and economic weight like Turkey. I believe some countries seek a Sunni alliance with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey to face ambitions of Shiite Iran," Nafaa explained.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi so far remained silent to the July 15 coup attempt against Erdogan. Also as a non-permanent UN Security Council member, Egypt showed reservation to a joint statement backing Erdogan's government and rejecting the attempted coup.

"Due to the isolation after the coup attempt, Turkey needs to reopen channels with regional powers including Egypt and Syria," said Mohamed Mohsen Abul-Nour, a researcher of international affairs.

He noted that the remarks of Turkish officials over the past couple of months showed "leniency and flexibility" towards Egypt and Syria, arguing there could be some unannounced negotiations between Cairo and Ankara to normalize ties based on Gulf mediation.

Abul-Nour echoed Nafaa's view that the Saudi-led Sunni in the face of the Iran-led Shiite in the Middle East region needs the biggest Sunni regional powers, namely Egypt and Turkey, the reason why Saudi Arabia is working on their reconciliation.

"But a fast reconciliation is unlikely because what has been ruined over the past three years will take some time to rebuild," the researcher added. Endit