News Analysis: THAAD in S. Korea to negatively affect peace in peninsula, region, world

Deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) on South Korean soil will negatively affect peace on the Korean Peninsula as well as regional and global security as it breaks strategic balance and boost arms race, experts here said Thursday.

"THAAD is an issue to have a big negative impact on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and the world peace as well as South Korea," Cheong Wook-sik, director of Peace Network and co-chair of steering committee of Civil Peace Forum, said during a press conference with foreign correspondents in Seoul.

Cheong expected THAAD in South Korea to raise tensions, rather than deter the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s nuclear and missile threats, which the South Korean government cited as a main reason for the THAAD deployment on its territory.

The DPRK test-fired three short-range ballistic missiles on Tuesday in an apparent show of force to protest against the decision on July 13 to install the U.S. missile defense system in a county some 250 km southeast of Seoul by the end of next year.

Just a day after the agreement between Seoul and Washington on July 8 to deploy one THAAD battery on an unidentified region, Pyongyang fired off a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off the east coast. The DPRK's military warned of taking "physical measures" when the site is determined.

Cheong noted that the DPRK has a variety of vehicles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. THAAD is an advanced U.S. missile defense system designed to shoot down missiles at a relatively high altitude of 40-150 km using a hit-to-kill technology.

The DPRK's short-range missiles are known to fly at a lower altitude of about 20 km incapable of being intercepted by THAAD missiles. Pyongyang's SLBM would be extremely difficult to detect and track with the THAAD's X-band radar in times of emergency.

China and Russia have expressed strong objections to the THAAD installation in South Korea as the AN/TPY-2 radar can spot Chinese and Russian territories. Seoul has said it will adopt the terminal mode radar with a detectable range of 600-800 km, but it can be converted at any time into a forward-based mode, which can range at least 2,000 km.

"THAAD's X-band radar will be operated by U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), not by South Korean troops. There is no room for our troops to intervene in the operation. That's a matter about South Korean sovereignty," said Park Jung-eun, deputy secretary-general of the People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy (PSPD).

In terms of sovereignty, South Korea imposed a double standard on the THAAD issue, said Lee Hae-jeong, professor at Chung-Ang University. "(South Korea's THAAD deployment) was a decision to give up military sovereignty toward the United States while claiming sovereignty toward China and Russia," said Lee.

After Pyongyang's third nuclear test in 2013, the Park Geun-hye administration called on Washington to delay the transfer of its wartime operational control of South Korean troops to Seoul indefinitely. The previous Lee Myung-bak government had originally agreed to receive its military control right from the U.S. forces by 2015.

Since USFK commander Curtis Scaparrotti took issue with the need for THAAD deployment for the first time in June 2014, Seoul had maintained a so-called "three no's" position, which means no request, no consultation and no decision on the deployment, while saying THAAD would be useless as it is designed to shoot down missiles at a high altitude.

Seoul's reversal on its previous position would mean the scrapping of the Park Geun-hye administration's major diplomatic and security policies, including the Northeast Asian Peace Cooperation Initiative and the Eurasia Initiative, which need cooperation from China and Russia, said the professor.

Lee said the THAAD deployment decision blew away strategic trust, which South Korea has established with China and Russia, and that there is little possibility for Seoul to persuade Beijing and Moscow to understand the South Korean need for the THAAD deployment.

As the THAAD deployment means South Korea entering the U.S. missile defense network, it would break a strategic balance in the region. Cheong at Peace Network said it would bring a strategic change from China and Russia, in which the United States and Japan will never benefit at all.

Cheong said South Korea's security would be secured without THAAD as the U.S.-South Korea alliance has provided military assets enough to deter the DPRK's nuclear and missile threats, calling for improved relations with the DPRK and re-negotiations on the denuclearized peninsula as a fundamental solution.

"(South) Korean people do not think the U.S. as well as China and Russia will use their nuclear weapons against their country as their country has good relationships with them," said Cheong who noted that South Korea should eliminate possibility for the DPRK to use its nuclear weapons by improving relations with its northern neighbor.

Many have said negotiations to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula already failed, but there hasn't been any such effective negotiation to resolve the peninsula's nuclear issue, Cheong said, adding that negotiations will build trust and freeze the DPRK's nuclear program, which would lead to denuclearization on the peninsula. Endit