Spotlight: 2 years of Caliphate, Islamic State toward declination, not expansion

Two years after declaring the Caliphate in Syria, the Islamic State (IS) terror group is moving toward its declination, not expansion, analysts say.

Unlike the first year of its Caliphate in Syria, when the terror group was on long-standing offensives in several Syrian areas, during which it controlled 50 percent of the Syrian territories, the second year was the beginning of end for the terror group.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition monitor group, said the terror-designated group had established footholds in nine Syrian provinces, namely the central province of Homs, eastern Deir al-Zour, northern al-Hasakah, central Hama, the capital Damascus, and northern Aleppo province, and most of all the northern province of al-Raqqa, which became the de facto capital of the terror group.

True that large parts of the 50 percent space IS held were desert, but the terror group's presence in 2014 was one of the worst things that happened during the country's long-standing conflict.

However, the second year of the Caliphate was not as promising as the first one, said the Observatory.

The UK-based watchdog group, which relies on a network of activists on ground, said all of the IS achievements in the first year have largely shrunk during the second one.

After depending on unleashing broad, and prolonged offensives, the IS now depends on swift short attacks against its enemies, amid indications that the terror group is now on the defense more than the offense.

The shrinking influence of the IS in the second year of its self-declared Caliphate is due to several reasons, mainly the U.S. air support to the Kurdish-led groups in northern Syria, which according to the Kurds was essential in expelling the IS from key areas in the northern Syria.

The U.S.-led anti-terror coalition started pounding the IS positions in northern Syria in late 2014.

The Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) expelled the IS terrorists from many predominantly Kurdish areas and other key cities in northern Syria with the help of the United States.

Now the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed rebel group, which is led by the YPG, is advancing against the IS in the key city of Manbej in northern Syria, one of the few key stronghold the IS group still holds near Turkey.

Also, the Russian air force joined the fight against the IS, but on the side of the Syrian government forces, whose troops have scored constable victories against the terror group.

With the help of the Russians, the Syrian army recaptured the key ancient city of Palmyra last March, the first key victory against the IS in Syria.

Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said last month the IS group has continued losing control over territory across Iraq and Syria.

"Right now in Iraq about 45 percent of the territory they once held has been recovered," Cook said, adding that "the number in Syria is anywhere between 16 to 20 percent."

The declination in the influence and control of the terror group is not also confined to the U.S. and Russian intervention, but also as a result of attacks carried out by other rebel factions in Syria against the positions of this terror group.

Economically, the IS has witnessed a sharp decline in the revenues as the anti-terror coalition led by the United States has struck key gas and oil fields the IS was using to fund its militants and their operations.

The Observatory said the IS control in Syria has shrunk from 50 percent to 30.

Maher Murhej, a Syrian politician and head of the Youth Party, told Xinhua that the IS is now in the age of demolition.

"At the beginning, the terror group succeeded in drawing attention to itself by committing the atrocities and the gruesome executions, which eventually led to a world unity on fighting it," he said.

Still, Murhej expected that the terror group will try to foment violence by its sympathizers in other countries, including Western ones to deliver a message of defiance to the world.

Another analyst, Osama Bilal, said the international community has realized the threat of IS, following the repeated attacks in Europe, whether those in Paris or Belgium, as well as the United States.

"The superpowers, except Turkey, have finally realized the risk of having this entity in the Middle East, that's why they are fighting now to eradicate its threat to protect themselves, before protecting Syria or Iraq, because the IS had drew in fighters from Western countries and the return of those fighters extra radicalized to Europe will be catastrophic," he said.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview with an Australian TV aired Friday that retaking the IS capital of al-Raqqa in northern Syria is not difficult, but he noted that Turkey must curb its support to the terror group.

"So, reaching al-Raqqa is not that difficult militarily, let's say. It's a matter of time. We are going in that direction. But the question when you talk about war is about what the other side, let's say the enemy, could do, and that's directly related to the effort of Turkey... in supporting those groups," he said.

"If you talk about Syria as an isolated military field, you can reach that area within a few months or a few weeks, let's say, but without taking into consideration the Turkish effort in supporting the terrorists, any answer would be a far cry from the reality, an un-factual answer," he continued.

The Syrian government has repeatedly accused Turkey of supporting the IS and other jihadi groups in Syria, holding Ankara responsible for much of the bloodletting in Syria as a result of the foreign support to the terror groups.

The Observatory said as many as 4,287 people, including soldiers and rebel fighters, were killed by the IS since June 29, 2014 till the same date of 2016. Endit