News Analysis: Uruguay heads for constitutional reform in bad timing

The Broad Front (FA), the political center-left coalition that has governed Uruguay since 2005, has resolved to push for a constitutional reform coinciding with the end of the economic boom, a move that is generating doubts among the government, analysts and the opposition.

Many believed that the initiative comes at the "worst moment" since it is a time when Tabare Vazquez's government is fatigued.

At the weekend, the FA's Plenary approved encouraging changes in the Magna Carta such as limiting the powers of the president, giving more weight to legislative power, establishing a voting system for nationals living abroad and reforming the judicial system.

The coalition also wants to establish principles involving human rights, the environment, transparency and regional integration.

A BAD MOMENT

The FA is living through the wear and tear of over a decade in power and Vazquez's popularity currently does not reach 40 percent. This indicator has fallen since he became president once again in March 2015 and it is far from the high rating he enjoyed during his first term in office between 2005 and 2010.

At the same time, the economy fell by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016 while inflation stayed high at 11 percent and indicators such as unemployment levels have increased almost constantly since 2015.

With a fiscal deficit of four percent of gross domestic product (GDP), Vazquez should have announced an adjustment that includes increasing taxes and budget postponements.

"The famous honeymoon is at the start of the mandate and at the end, the government can show or can make an effort to show what it has done. The most difficult time is always in the middle," said political scientist Adolfo Garce.

For that reason, the researcher at Uruguay's University of the Republic's Political Science Institute believed this is the most inopportune moment to discuss a possible constitutional reform, Garce told local daily El Observador.

FA representative Cecilia Bottino, who belongs the coalition's Movement of Popular Participation (MPP), justified the initiative confirming that "reforming the Constitution is a point that is included in the Broad Front's government program, which was put to the citizens during the last elections."

However, her coalition colleague Jose Carlos Mahia, who belongs to the Uruguay Assembly party, warned that "the road to constitutional reform could be very dangerous for the Broad Front. It could affect the current government's course and particularly its possibility of obtaining a fourth (consecutive) electoral triumph."

Many of the topics that the left want to introduce into the Constitution are "acceptable" but others do not even have internal consensus, said Mahia.

The opposition has harshly questioned the ruling coalition's approach.

Luis Lacalle Pou, leader of the National Party, the major opposition party to the FA government, has expressed that the constitutional reform "is the sign that things are going badly for them (the FA)."

The Constitution of 1967 governs Uruguay, despite including some amendments such as changes made to the electoral system in 1996.

The FA's Plenary will meet again in September in order to agree on how they plan to reform the Magna Carta.

While some groups are in favor of convening a National Constituent Assembly, a long and expensive process according to many, others opt for the "popular initiative" mechanism which involves collecting signatures from 10 percent of the electorate.

For Oscar Bottinelli, the director of the consultancy firm Factum, all governments go through difficult years in the middle of their mandates.

"It will look like a test, much more important than a survey," Bottinelli told El Observador.

For that reason, the analyst understands that encouraging a reform is a "gutsy gamble."

There are also objections to this reform process within the government.

"I have had some doubts about the timing of the topic," said Uruguay's Vice President Raul Sendic. However, he also said that he would respect the "decision of political force."

Even though he recognized that "a constitutional reform is needed in order to address some topics," he emphasized that "the discussion is surrounding the timing and whether it is the (correct) moment."

"As vice president, the No. 1 priority is what we will do to face the economic difficulties and how can we improve the country's situation and the Uruguayan people's living conditions," said Sendic.

In September the results will be out as to whether the FA will ratify the new challenge half way through Vazquez's new term in office, or not. Endit