News Analysis: Taliban leader's death widens cracks in fragmented group as gov't gears up to exploit situation for peace

Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor had been killed by a U.S. military drone inside the Pakistani town of Dalbandin in the southern Balochistan province on Saturday, with the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) and U.S. President Barack Obama both confirming his death.

The news on Mansoor's death has been widely hailed by Afghans as a "major blow" to the Taliban insurgent group, which according to many Afghan political observers now help further facilitate the government's "carrot and stick" policy and push for peace and war simultaneously.

According to Afghan political and military experts, the physical elimination of Mullah Mansoor, amid the ongoing Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan, would knock the wind out of the Taliban and eventually weaken its war machine and its capability on the battleground.

"The sudden death of Mullah Mansoor at this critical stage in Afghanistan where his fighters are fighting tooth and nail to gain power could put Taliban militants in a state of confusion and create a leadership vacuum," Retried General Atiqullah Amarkhil, an analyst close to the situation, told Xinhua.

Taliban militants would further be divided into several more groups in the wake of Mullah Mansoor's death, the analyst predicted, arguing that the death of the Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar had divided the armed outfit into two factions led by late Mullah Mansoor and his rival Mullah Mohammad Rasoul respectively.

Mansoor's death will lead to the further fragmentation within the already divided group, the analyst explained.

"Not having a leader would eventually demoralize Taliban fighters on the battleground," Amarkhil maintained, adding that government forces would now be presented with the opportunity to mount more pressure on the insurgents to shrink Taliban-held territory.

"It is a good chance for the government to exploit the situation arising out of Mansoor's death and to, while keeping up military pressure on the Taliban fighters, also encourage them to sit at the negotiating table," Amarkhil told Xinhua, saying the government should also warn the Taliban that anyone rejecting talks would face the same fate as Mansoor.

When asked why Mansoor was targeted, Amarkhil explained, "since Mullah Mansoor had close links with al-Qaida, he was an irreconcilable element of the peace process and had always organized attacks on Afghan and foreign forces, and therefore the U.S. administration decided to eliminate him."

"The Taliban group will be further fragmented following Mansoor's death and several senior Taliban leaders. including Mullah Omar's son, Mawlawi Yaqub, Mullah Manan, Mullah Zakir and Sarajudin Haqqani - the leader of the Haqqani network - would have to bargain over the militant group's new leadership," Jawed Kohistani, an expert on the situation, told local media recently.

Mansoor's death, according to the observer, does not mean achieving peace in months, but will certainly weaken the Taliban's military capability.

It might take months not weeks for the Taliban leadership council to find a successor for Mullah Mansoor, according to the analyst.

Neither Taliban militants, nor the Pakistan government has formally confirmed Mullah Mansoor's death on Pakistani soil. However, sources close to the outfit in contact with the media have revealed that the Taliban senior leaders and commanders have been discussing choosing Mansoor's successor.

U.S. President Barack Obama, has also confirmed Mullah Mansoor's death and said he was killed on Pakistan soil on Saturday.

"Mullah Mansoor was the supreme leader of the Taliban and his death will deal a serious blow to the group," Afghan analyst Edris Rahmani told local media.

According to Rahmani, Mansoor's death took place amid ongoing peace talks between the Afghan government and Gulbudin Hekmatyar, the leader of his own factional Islamic party the Hizb-e-Islami, believing the talks, if successful, would encourage many other Taliban members to follow suit.

The peace talks with the Hekmatyar-led party, according to Afghan government-backed peace body the High Peace Council, are nearing conclusion and Hekmatyar will return to Kabul with "dignity" in weeks if not days, sources familiar with the matter have said.

"Targeting Mansoor by the U.S. and taking him out sends a strong message to the Taliban militants to opt for peace and will also aid the government in stepping up its own push for peace through mounting increased military pressure on the militant group," a former provincial governor and military analyst, Musa Khan Akbarzada, told local media.

Afghan political analyst Sekander Fraidoon believes that the death of Mansoor would be a good opportunity for the Afghan government to bring the Taliban back to the negotiating table, as the militant group is now in fear of U.S. military power once again.

He believes that Taliban, in the short-run, might intensify their attacks across Afghanistan to keep up the group's morale. In the long-run, however, they will finally return to talks with the government as their capacity has been seriously weakened with the death of Mansoor.

Afghans from all walks of life have branded Taliban Mullah Mansoor as a murderers of thousands of innocent people and have welcomed his death.

"I am hopeful that Mansoor's death would lead to the death of the Taliban and eventually lead to a return to lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan," Sayed Abdullah, 33, a resident in Kabul, told Xinhua recently. Enditem