Spotlight: Turkish intervention into Syria risks larger confrontations: analysts

A unilateral military intervention into Syria, as threatened by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may well put Turkey into head-on clashes with its rivals and drag it into the protracted civil war in its neighbor, analysts have warned.

"Turkey would find itself in an armed clash with Russians, the Syrian regime, Iran as well as other warring groups," said Murat Bilhan, deputy chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank Turkish Asian Center for Strategic Studies.

Erdogan indicated last week his country's readiness to act militarily on its own to get rid of the rocket threat from Syria.

"We're doing all the necessary preparations to clean the other side of the border because of the troubles being experienced in Kilis, but we haven't yet been able to receive the support that we desire from allies," the president said.

"While our citizens are being martyred every day by rockets fired from the other side, what will we wait for from the allies?" he added. "If so, we will pull ourselves up by our bootstraps."

A continuing firing of rockets from northern Syria since mid-January has killed at least 20 in Turkey's southeastern border city of Kilis.

The Turkish government holds the Islamic State (IS) responsible for the rocket firings, although it is widely argued that Kilis may have been targeted by the militant group or some others to draw Turkey into the Syrian conflict.

The Turkish military has responded by shelling IS-held positions in northern Syria and reportedly sent there a 20-member team of special forces for operations in which rocket launchers were destroyed.

"A Turkish military intervention would certainly drag the country into a protracted conflict in Syria," said Faruk Logoglu, a retired diplomat who held top posts in the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, when asked about a possible Turkish and Saudi incursion, strongly implied that Russia may use its air force based in Syria to strike any "unwelcome" intruder.

"I do not think that anyone will decide to play dangerous games and carry out any provocations due to the fact that there are Russian Aerospace Forces stationed (in Syria)," Lavrov was quoted as saying by Russia Today TV network.

Lavrov was apparently responding to remarks made by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who said Ankara was ready to send ground troops to Syria if necessary.

In early February, when rumors circulated that Turkey and Saudi Arabia could intervene to help the rebels topple the Syrian government, Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev warned that such a step could lead to a third world war.

The relations between Russia and Turkey have been quite strained since a Turkish fighter shot down in November last year a Russian bomber near the Syrian border for allegedly violating Turkey's air space.

Russia was looking for an opportunity to get its revenge, as President Vladimir Putin made clear in December, noting Russia had deployed its state-of-the-art air defense system in Syria in the aftermath of the downing.

In remarks to the press, Putin said "Turkish jets used to fly in Syrian air space; they were violating Syrian air space. Let's see if they can fly there now."

In the view of Cahit Armagan Dilek, a security and foreign policy analyst, a unilateral Turkish intervention is expected to lead to a bigger clash with Russia.

Noting Russia had stated its right to retaliate, Dilek said "Should Turkey carry out an intervention, Russia would strike Turkish troops. Then, Turkey would willy-nilly strike back."

Turkey has been offering strong support to the so-called "moderate" rebel groups in Syria, while Russia and Iran are aiding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

While underlining Turkey's right under the UN Charter to defend itself against rocket attacks, the analysts advise against any unilateral intervention.

"It would put Turkey at odds not just with Russia and the Syrian regime, but also Iran, paving the way to unforeseen consequences," warned Logoglu.

Turkey's plan also appears to include forging a safe zone in northern Syria to protect the country from rocket attacks and settle the refugees fleeing the civil war, the analysts said.

Turkey currently hosts more than 2.8 million Syrians, with about one tenth of them being accommodated in camps.

A safe zone in Syria would also enable Turkey to better support rebel groups against the Syrian government's advance around Aleppo, which is near the potential safe-zone area.

Turkey has so far failed to win any support from its allies, in particular the United States and the Eoropean Union, for the safe zone project.

Erdogan reiterated in the past week his call for such a zone. Turkey's military action for a safe zone would also be aimed at preventing the Syrian Kurds from uniting their two self-declared cantons in the east of the Euphrates with the Afrin canton to the west along Turkey's border, the analysts said.

The 98-kilometer-long area between the Kurdish cantons, which is controlled by the IS, is the place where Turkey wants to establish a safe zone.

Turkey fears an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria may set a "bad" example for its own Kurds.

Turkey argues that the Kurdish militant group in Syria, the People's Protection Units, is affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that has been waging a bloody war against Turkey for Kurdish autonomy and possible independence.

To build a safe zone and to protect itself from rocket firings, Turkey would need to enter as deep as 20-30 kilometers inside Syria, according to the analysts.

In the view of Dilek, who was a staff officer in the Turkish Armed Forces, it is not feasible either economically or militarily for Turkey to establish on its own such a safe zone.

"All the global and regional actors are against Turkey's intervention into Syria," he noted.

That would mean Turkish troops would also be open to attacks from various warring groups including the IS and Kurds in the Syrian theatre.

Despite President Erdogan's threat, Bilhan, a former ambassador, is optimistic that the Turkish military, known for its rationality, would not agree to be dragged into an adventure in Syria. Endit