Spotlight: Sykes-Picot's ghost hovers over Iraq, Syria

One hundred years after the Sykes-Picot agreement arbitrarily drew the borders for Syria and Iraq, the two countries are daunted by the risk of border change as they are both struggling to confront a seemingly endless civil war.

The two central governments have gained the upper hand over rebels in the past six months or so, but this has been possible largely thanks to military support from outside powers.

"It is not clear whether Syria and Iraq will be able to preserve their territorial integrity after the crisis," Yasar Yakis, a former Turkish foreign minister, told Xinhua.

It remains to be seen if the two governments will manage to reclaim all the territory from rebels, given the fact that years of civil war has greatly drained their resources -- human, economic and military.

"It looks almost impossible for Syria and Iraq to preserve their unity and territorial integrity," said Murat Bilhan, deputy chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank Turkish Asian Center for Strategic Studies.

Bilhan, a former ambassador, does not expect the de facto divide in the two countries to become de jure in the short term due to the clash of interests between various local, regional and major powers.

As victors of the first World War, Britain and France designed the Middle East based on the Sykes-Picot agreement they secretly signed in 1916.

Iraq and Syria, which were part of the Ottoman Empire, were created following the collapse of the empire in the war without any regard to ethnic and sectarian realities.

It is not evident how far the outside powers, namely the United States and Russia, will be willing to extend themselves for the territorial integrity of the two countries.

U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden implied at the end of last month that Iraq is an artificial state, indicating that the countries where U.S. troops are posted for a peacekeeping mission were artificially created.

"Biden's remarks mean the current borders may change," said Bilhan.

"Sykes-Picot treaty appears as new 'ghost' in the region," remarked Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations from the Middle East Technical University.

The United States has around 4,000 troops in Iraq, while its jets and attack helicopters have been offering air support to Iraqi troops in the fight against the Islamic State (IS).

IS is being supported by some Sunni groups which feel Sunnis are not given by the Shiite majority their due in the government.

While Iraq is suffering from a sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shiites, its Kurdish population in the north are craving for independence.

In an interview with the Al-Monitor news portal in March, Massoud Barzani, the president of the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, said Kurds are planning to hold a referendum on independence before October.

Addressing a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani in April, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said both countries support the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria.

Turkey, however, is reportedly letting Iraqi Kurds export oil via its land at the cost of damaging ties with the Iraqi central government, thereby providing Kurds with financial resources for survival.

The Kurdish president also sounded quite optimistic in the interview about Turkey's support for Iraqi Kurds' independence.

As to whether the Turkish government would accept Iraqi Kurds' independence, Barzani reportedly said in the interview, "If the current Justice and Development Party government (of Turkey) does not recognize and accept an independent Kurdistan, I don't think any other government in Turkey would."

According to Yakis, who is also president of the Ankara-based Center for Strategic Communication, Iraq seems to be closer to dismemberment as Kurds there have insisted on independence.

"They have everything to become an independent state except a seat in the United Nations," he said.

"The United States already uttered that such a scenario cannot be discarded outright."

Should Iraq disintegrate, a Kurdish state in the north, a Sunni Arab state in the middle part and a Shiite Arab state in the south is expected to emerge on Iraqi territory.

The picture in Syria is not much different. Some Sunni rebel groups, in addition to IS and Kurds, have been jostling in the Syrian theater.

The civil war in Syria is also based on ethnic and sectarian divides. The current Syrian state is largely controlled by the Alawite minority, although Sunnis are also fairly well integrated into the political system.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are continuing their militarily support to the so-called moderate Sunni groups against the Syrian government.

Washington, on its part, also backs the Syrian Kurds in their efforts to capture IS-controlled areas in northern Syria. Syrian Kurds have already established three autonomous cantons along the Turkish border and announced in March the establishment of a federal region in northern Syria composed of the three cantons.

The Syrian government, the United States and Turkey said they would not recognize a federal system in the Kurdish-controlled area, but a leading Kurdish figure warned that the Kurds would seek independence if the demand for a federation is rejected.

Ankara and Washington said they support Syria's territorial integrity, but their support to rebel groups is working against the country's territorial integrity.

"A smaller Iraq and Syria is possible, but to get peace there will be more difficult," observed Bagci.

In mid-March, Russia withdrew in an unexpected move some of its troops and aircraft from Syria after having helped Syrian government troops recapture sizable land from rebels in the western and northwestern parts of the country.

The move could indicate that Russia may not be keen to help the Syrian government take back all the territory it has lost.

"Russia is ready to settle for a Syria in which the Syrian government would have control mainly of the country's coastal region with its adjacent territory," said Bilhan.

Russia has military bases in the western part of Syria, particularly on the Mediterranean coast.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in the past week that Russia does not consider President Bashar al-Assad as an ally, although it "supports him in his fight against terrorism and in his efforts to preserve the Syrian state."

In case Syria gets disintegrated, al-Assad would have control mainly over the country's coastal part including some major cities toward the interior of the country as well as the area surrounding the capital, Damascus.

A Kurdish state may emerge in northern Syria along the Turkish border in such a scenario.

The remainder of the country may become a "Sunnistan," a state of Sunni Syrians. Sunnis make up the majority of the population as opposed to Alawites and Christians, who together are estimated to account for a little over 20 percent of the population.

According to Yakis, the "Sunnistan" may also stretch to the Sunni territories of Iraq around Baghdad, given that Sunni areas in the two countries are neighbors. Endit