News Analysis: Trump's scenario of pulling U.S. forces out of South Korea, Japan highly unlikely -- experts

U.S. Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has suggested that the U.S. pull its forces out of South Korea and Japan and allow both countries to develop nuclear weapons, but experts say such a scenario is highly unlikely.

Trump suggested that the United States end its longstanding military commitments to South Korea and Japan by withdrawing its troops there, arguing that the monetary costs were too high, according to a report published Saturday on the website of the New York Times.

Trump then took a step further, suggesting that Washington allow those two countries to develop nuclear weapons to fill the defense gap, the report said.

While Trump has raised the question of removing U.S. troops from South Korea and Japan, "it is highly unlikely that even a Trump administration would do so," Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Korea Economic Institute, told Xinhua.

Some experts believe Trump's statements are pure politics.

"Instead, Trump's rhetoric should be viewed in terms of campaign rhetoric. (Former President) Bill Clinton campaigned against NAFTA in 1992 and instead passed it. (President) Barack Obama campaigned to renegotiate NAFTA and never did so," Stangarone said, referring to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Stangarone said that while Trump, if elected, would not need Congressional approval to withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea and Japan, he and Congress would likely defer to the judgment of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the commanders on the ground.

He added that if Trump ever did make good on this week's statements, the move would be counterproductive for a newly elected Trump administration.

"It would undermine confidence in U.S. security guarantees in Seoul and Tokyo, while also sending a signal (to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea) that a Trump administration is pennywise and pound-foolish in terms of seeing a nuclear free Korean peninsula," he said.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest told a daily briefing Wednesday that "Mr. Trump's suggestion that somehow we should encourage our allies in South Korea to develop nuclear weapons is directly contrary to a policy that the United States has long pursued and that the international community has long supported."

The idea of developing nuclear weapons has already been laid to rest in South Korea, said Stangarone.

While members of the Korean National Assembly and some experts have raised the possibility, the Park Geun-hye administration of South Korea has stated that it would not be in the nation's interest.

The current administration in Tokyo would likely take a similar view to that of Seoul and could face deeper public resistance due to its own historical experience, Stangarone said.

"Much of Japan is still strongly anti-nuclear and there would likely be significant public resistance to an effort in Japan to develop a nuclear weapon," he said.

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters Monday that the country's "three principles" of not owning, making or allowing nuclear weapons "remain an important basic policy of the government."

Brookings Institution's senior fellow Darrell West told Xinhua it would be difficult for an American president to pull troops out of South Korea or Japan unilaterally.

"Congress would have to approve funding to support something as big as this and it is not likely that the House and Senate would do that," West said.

Indeed, most Republicans and Democrats would oppose such a move because they see those countries as within the strategic interests of the United States, he said.

"With all the chaos around the world, it is very unlikely that America will scale back its commitment to (South Korea) or Japan," he said. Endi