News Analysis: Regional security balance in Northwestern Europe awaits decisions

As the Baltic Sea area is increasingly seen as a focal point of tension between Russia and the West, Finland has remained something of a question mark in the regional puzzle except that it keeps saying it will defend itself.

The country resorted to intense public damage control when the upcoming arrival of small U.S. units for joint exercises in the spring gave reason to speculation about a change in the Finnish security policy. At the same time, the defense cooperation between Finland and Sweden, an alternative to joining NATO, has been questioned by analysts in both countries.

All through the post war decades, Sweden was something of a "mental lifeline" for Finland and Sweden appreciated its role. Sweden and Finland are not NATO members, although they are both partners with NATO.

Commentators have not avoided discussing the option that Sweden would go alone to NATO while Finland would remain outside. The future of what Finnish President Sauli Niinisto has described as "the Nordic balance" remains uncertain.

Long time Finnish military analyst, retired colonel Pekka Visuri told Xinhua that the statement made by Finnish Defense Minister Jussi Niinisto during the meeting with his Swedish counterpart Peter Hultqvist was clear. "Finland would defend Finnish territory only and will not give commitments to any other country."

Charly Salonius-Pasternak, researcher at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, claimed recently that Stockholm has concluded Finland would not be able to take a decision on NATO membership within a few years or even during this decade. "The opponents of Swedish NATO membership hope that the Finnish stand would block Swedish decisions," the Finnish researcher said.

Swedish commentator Mats Johansson noted this week in the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet that perhaps it is time to "say good-bye to Finland." He wrote that the opinion climate in Finland is divided and reluctant. "Sweden should wish Finland well on the road it has chosen. And Sweden should develop its defense simply minding its own interests."

These views came up just a month after the Finnish and Swedish prime ministers Juha Sipila and Stefan Lofven published a joint article underlining the importance of the bilateral defense cooperation. The article stressed that both Finland and Sweden should remain outside military alliances.

They repeated the view that the military non-allignment of the two countries contributes to stability in Northern Europe. Analysts have noted the article was intended to calm down fears mainly in Finland.

In Sweden, all the non-socialist parties have flagged for joining NATO, but the current Swedish left-green government does not favor the idea. In Finland, opinion polls show majority opinion against NATO membership. Of the political parties, only the conservatives have a pro-NATO stand, but have not been vocal in promoting it in recent times.

Finnish government is preparing a statement on security policy later this year. A separate working group of Finnish and international experts are compiling an assessment of the implications of a Finnish NATO membership.

However, signals from within the Finnish government have been somewhat mixed. When meeting with visiting Swedish defense minister earlier this month, Finnish Defense Minister Jussi Niinisto said NATO is a security solution for Baltic countries, implying that Finland will not defend them.

But one day later, Finnish Foreign Minister Timo Soini said in parliament that Finland respects the solidarity clause in the EU Lisbon protocol. Soini said Finland would give help in case an EU country was attacked and "Finland itself expects help in such a situation." Analysts noted the statement by Soini was more explicit than earlier words on the issue.

Media influence is used on all sides. Col. Visuri said to Xinhua that an Estonian intelligence report issued recently calmed down prospects of a Russian threat: "An invasion would be possible, but not likely now." Visuri noted that "in some initial coverage even here in Finland, the message had been interpreted as alarmist."

He also said a recent statement by a U.S. general about "bringing Patriot missiles to Sweden" got large international coverage. "It was, however, a response to an interview question and not an actual statement," Visuri remarked. Endit