Spotlight: Five years on, Syria remains in war, uncertainty

Five years after the outbreak of conflicts in Syria, the Arab country with an ancient civilization, rich natural resources and impressive landscape remains in war flames and widespread displacement, with a future in uncertainty.

The latest peace talks in Geneva somewhat brings hope, yet the result is not guaranteed.

The long-standing Syria crisis has something to do with its own historical and realistic factors, and is also a result of external intervention, especially by some Western powers and regional countries, which makes the situation more complicated and severe.

The so-called "Arab Spring" was originating in December 2010 not something accidental, as most countries involved in the "revolution" had long seen poverty, frequent public protests and poor governing capacity, said Eric Denece, director and founder of the French Centre for Intelligence Studies, an independent study centre founded in 2000.

Western powers took the opportunity to promote regime change in the region in order to serve their own interests, he said.

Actually, the U.S. administration proposed in early 2004 "Greater Middle East," aiming to "democratize" "non-democratic countries in West and Central Asia and North Africa," to guarantee its strategic interests in the region and enhance its leading role in global affairs.

Osama Danura, a renowned Syrian scholar, said that the United States played major role in the Syrian situation either in the anti-government protest in the beginning or in the later civil war.

U.S. President Barack Obama has repeatedly demanded that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down, which is intended to, according to Danura, encourage the opposition to fight forcefully against the al-Assad regime, therefore to creates chaos in the country.

To support the opposition in Syria, the United States and its Middle East allies have offered them military aids, Danura said. However, most of the arms were grasped by extremist groups, including the Islamic State (IS).

The rise of the IS and other extremist terrorist groups in the Middle East is not irrelevant to the U.S. foreign policy, he said.

Lakhdar Brahimi, former U.N./Arab League special envoy to Syria, told al-Jazeera Television recently that none of the countries involved in the conflict or negotiations "had the interest of the Syrian people as their first priority," saying "there were no good guys in the Syrian tragedy."

Since 2011, ceaseless conflicts have battered the country, leaving over 250,000 people dead and half of its 23 million population away from home, which dragged its neighbors and even parts of Europe into unprecedented predicament.

The country has also witnessed massive damage of infrastructure and houses, severe deterioration in public services as well as inadequate food supply.

Around 13.5 million Syrians require some form of assistance. Of this total, 72 percent have no access to drinking water and two million children are out of school, Stephen O'Brien, U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, said when making a visit to Damascus last December.

The conflict has posed severe economic challenges to Syria as pointed out in a World Bank report, which described the economic impact of the conflict as large and growing.

According to the report, Syria's GDP was estimated to have contracted by an average of 15.4 percent for the 2011-2014 period and was expected to decline further by nearly 16 percent in 2015.

Meanwhile, public finances have materially worsened since the start of the conflict with the fiscal deficit sharply increasing and revenue falling to an all-time low. Serious inflation, sharp devaluation of the currency and dramatically reduced oil production have co-existed in the war-ravaged country.

According to a World Bank report, the oil production in Syria declined from 368,000 barrels per day in 2010 to an estimated 40,000 barrels in 2015, leading to a big fall of oil revenues.

Maher Ihsan, a Syrian political, analyst said the so-called "Arab Spring" dubbed by Western media as a "democratic and liberal revolution" has never brought about genuine democracy and freedom for relevant countries, but havoc, violence, war, terrorism and humanitarian crisis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also pointed out that Russia has lost its market shares cultivated for many years and major business contracts in the countries that were swept by the storm, which were seized now by enterprises whose countries have involved in overturning local regimes.

People now pin their hope on the ongoing talks in Geneva to find a solution to the Syrian crisis. U.N. Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said that there should be "at least a clear roadmap, not an agreement, but a roadmap" by the end of the three rounds. "This is what Syria expects from us." Endi