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Spotlight: China's economic growth target achievable with its continuous reform efforts: U.S. experts

Xinhua, March 16, 2016 Adjust font size:

China can achieve its economic growth target of 6.5 percent to 7 percent this year as the government has determined to further implement structural reforms, U.S. experts have said.

"A target range makes more sense for China these days because its economy is larger and much more complex than it used to be," Ann Lee, adjunct professor of finance and economics at New York University, told Xinhua in a recent interview.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced the targeted range of growth in his government work report delivered earlier this month at the opening meeting of the fourth session of the 12th National People's Congress (NPC).

The country's top political advisory body, the People's Political Consultative Conference National Committee, was holding its annual session roughly at the same time with the NPC event.

The economic growth target is aligned with China's goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and takes into consideration the need to advance structural reform, Li said.

It also marked the first time in two decades that China adopted a range for its growth target rather than a specific number.

China's economy, facing notable downward pressure amid a structural overhaul, grew 6.9 percent year-on-year in 2015, the slowest in more than two decades but still the envy of most economies in the world.

"It is very natural for an economy the size of China's to see diminishing rates of percentage growth," said Brendan Ahern, managing director of U.S. Financial Consultancy Krane Shares.

Ahern told Xinhua on Tuesday that "the value of China's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) reached an all-time high in 2015 and will do the same in 2016."

According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's consumption contributed 66.4 percent to the country's GDP growth in 2015, the highest level since 2001. Meanwhile, the service industry contributed 50.5 percent of the GDP, 10 percent higher than that of the manufacturing industry.

Such data have demonstrated that China's economic transformation has been on a fast track. The world second largest economy is now shifting from one that is based on labor-intensive manufacturing for export to one that is based on innovation, the service sector and private consumption.

Lee noted that the growth targets set this year are achievable because Chinese policymakers still have many monetary and fiscal levers at their disposal, and China's "continuous reform efforts can also be a great source of jobs and growth".

In the government work report, Premier Li reaffirmed the importance of supply-side structural reform, a popular notion proposed by China's policymakers last November as the latest remedy for economic ills caused by breakneck growth.

The supply-side reform highlights measures to reduce ineffective and low-end supply, and to boost productivity by expanding medium-to-high-end supply.

"The supply-side reform has focused on economic sectors most affected by the weak global economic recovery such as steel, coal and aluminum," Ahern said.

"These sectors currently face overcapacity though it is good to see the issue has been identified and a plan implemented to address it," he added.

Apart from fixing overcapacity for traditional industries, Chinese policymakers also underlined support for innovation and entrepreneurship in the government report.

Michael Spence, winner of the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, wrote in an article published on March 1 by the Council on Foreign Relations that "highly innovative and dynamic private firms are driving growth in China ...these innovations are occurring in a wide range of areas, from biotechnology to renewable energy."

"The reality is that China's transition to a more innovative, consumer-driven economy is well underway," wrote Spence, who is also a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

"China's current bout of economic volatility is likely to persist... Add to that the smart use of state resources, together with sure-footed reforms, and China should be able to achieve moderate yet sustainable long-term growth," he said. Endi