News Analysis: Uneven recovery, effects of austerity to blame for Ireland's election upset

Due to a final hour recount request, votes are still being tallied in three constituencies four days after Ireland held its general elections with six seats in the lower house of parliament, or Dail Eireann, still awaiting allocation.

However, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Enda Kenny from Fine Gael (United Ireland Party), the senior partner governing in a coalition with the Labour Party, has conceded that the coalition has not received enough votes to secure the 80 seats minimum needed to form a government.

Though Fine Gael still maintains a slight lead in the number of seats secured, their traditional rivals Fianna Fail (Republican Party) have regained some of their dominance lost in the last elections. This has come as a surprise to many Fine Gael supporters in Ireland, as the coalition had led the country to a strong economic recovery since they took power in 2011.

Irish comedian Des Bishop describe the voters who switched their support to Fianna Fail in this election as those who "don't like those who tried to tidy up after a party wrecked it, so decide to reward the people who wrecked it instead."

Following growth of 5.2 percent in 2014, Ireland remained the fastest growing economy in the European Union in 2015 with its gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 6.9 percent last year, according to the European Commission (EC), the executive arm of the European Union (EU).

However, the effects of recovery have been uneven, while austerity measures undertaken under European directives had affected certain segments more than others. "Certainly we have felt the impact of the recovery in my industry, and I can see things happening around me in Dublin," said architect Victoria Landy, 45, who said she voted for a Fine Gael candidate. "But I am sure for people in rural areas and people who might have lost their jobs during the economic crisis, the austerity measures that were brought in, like the water charges, were just too much."

The electorate had punished the then-ruling party Fianna Fail in the previous general election held in 2011, who suffered their biggest loss in history -- securing only 20 of their previously 71 seat majority. Many of the middle class voters went to Fine Gael, who gained 25 seats for a total of 59 seats, while some of the working class Fianna Fail supporters cast their votes instead for Labour, who gained 17 seats for a total of 37 seats.

In this year's election, Fine Gael will get about 50 seats, but their minority partner, The Labour Party, in coalition government, has suffered a significant loss for a multitude of reasons.

"This election was a perfect storm for the Labour party," said Dr. Adrian Kavanagh, a researcher on the geography of elections at Ireland's Maynooth University. "They are facing the combined effects of boundary changes, electoral geography and changing political competition patterns."

Kavanagh said that more than any other party the redrawn constituency boundaries that went into effect for this election had affected areas where Labour might have had support. In addition, many of the Labour Party's stronger candidates had gone into retirement. The record number of independent candidates running on single, localized issues would have also taken away voters who might have otherwise voted for Labour as a alternative to the two dominant parties.

As a result, Labour was the biggest loser in this election, with their seats in the Dail dwindling to the single digits.

Though Fianna Fail has made a comeback, they are still a distance away from winning back their previous supporters, whose disappointment seems to have pushed them toward supporting non-traditional independent candidates or Sinn Fein candidates. "Fianna Fail still has a few more years in purgatory," said Kavanagh.

Sinn Fein ("We Ourselves") has nearly doubled their seats in this election, which worries some middle class voters who still associates Sinn Fein with their military past and ties to the Irish Republican Army. Their leader Gerry Adams, had recently been accused by former members of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) of ordering killings throughout the 1970s as the leader of the IRA. He has denounced the accusations as malicious, and has never been prosecuted.

"I don't trust him," said voter Una Nolan, 51. "But I think Sinn Fein appeals to the working class voters, perhaps because they have their way of getting things done that can't be done through official channels."

With Sinn Fein's strong showing at this election, however, the party is poised to have a place at the negotiating table. Leader Gerry Adams has ruled out possibilities of becoming a minority coalition partner with either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail. "We are not going to go in and prop up a regressive and negative old conservative government, whatever the particular party political complexion," he said. Enditem