News Analysis: Cessation of hostilities marks test step to end Syria crisis

The cessation of hostilities in Syria could sustain or collapse, but it surely is a first step in a roadmap to end the conflict in Syria politically, and a procedure that could test the willingness of the warring parties in Syria to end the conflict, analysts said.

Even though the truce excludes the terror-designated groups of the Islamic State (IS) and the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front, it is seen as the first ambitious move by the international community, reflecting the willingness of the superpowers to work to end the Syrian conflict, despite the fact that each power has its own agenda.

The apparent consensus between Russia and America has also reflected on the warring parties on ground, as each of them pledged to be committed to the truce.

On Friday afternoon, just hours ahead of the commencement of the ceasefire, nearly 90 rebel groups in Syria said they will be committed to the truce, the U.S. officials said.

The Syrian government also announced its consent to the plan, warning that it reserves the right to respond to any breach of the truce.

Kurdish fighters of the People's Protection Units (YPG) and the Kurdish-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), which are fighting the IS in northeastern Syria, also said they will respect the ceasefire, but their war on the IS will continue.

Western officials said the truce would be monitored, as any breach will be dealt with by a series of measures, the last of which could be a military option.

Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy to Syria, said that ultimately, the entire monitoring structure will be built around Russia and the United States, with the UN acting as a go-between.

As the ceasefire went into effect midnight Friday, calm has prevailed the capital Damascus, with people counting the minutes of tranquility without hearing the usual shelling reverberating from the surroundings of the capital.

Still, provinces with thick presence of the IS and Nusra haven't felt the same rest, with battles continuing in Aleppo, the northern countryside of Latakia province and the northwestern province of Idlib, as well as the countryside of the central provinces of Hama and Homs.

"In the midst of all the circumstances surrounding the Syrian crisis, and the overlapping of the armed groups' locations on the Syrian territories as well as the overlapping of the interests of the regional and international players, the cessation of hostilities is more of a prelude to further understandings than an essential landmark in the political landscape," Osama Danura, a political analyst who holds a PhD in political science, told Xinhua.

He said that the ceasefire could fail or continue, despite of that it's a first step toward putting Syria back on the track of the political solution.

"We have several examples of failing truces, like Lebanon, where many ceasefire attempts failed during the Civil War before they finally agreed on a political soliton," he said, adding that "for sure it's a prelude and a roadmap to finally reach a solution."

"This is a prolonged process and is not an essential turn that could change the reality of the war on ground overnight," he continued.

Danura said he personally thinks that the truce will be a test for all the rebel groups, which pretend to be "moderate."

"Now we are in the face of a new phase, all the groups that pretend to be moderate will be tested, but if they refused to abide by the ceasefire, they will be branded as terrorists such as the Nusra and IS," he said.

Despite the fact that the truce may not yield quick fruits, it represents a turn in the course of the Syrian crisis toward the implementation of the resolution 2254, which was agreed upon by the superpowers in New York aiming to end the conflict.

Meanwhile, Maher Ihsan, a political analyst, said that truce could be the first, but not the last in Syria.

"It could be breached and battles could be restarted, but the logic of wars says that any successful ceasefire or truce could be preceded by tens of failing attempts," he said.

"So, if this truce failed, it means that we are on the road toward the final truce the at will succeed one day," he noted.

Still, Ihasan believed that the current truce "reflects world powers' seriousness."

De Mistura, the UN envoy, also expected breaches at some point.

"This will remain a complicated, painstaking process," he said. But he added that "nothing is impossible, especially at this moment."

De Mistura said he plans to resume Geneva peace talks on Syria crisis on March 7 if the cessation of hostilities "largely holds." Endit