Feature: Irish votes cast as hung parliament predicted

Hopes for continued economic recovery are on the minds of Irish voters as they go to the polls on Friday.

Though each of the four major parties have focused their campaigns on economic policies with varying degrees of tax relief and social spending, final hour polls still suggest no clear leader in the race, and a high possibility for either a hung parliament, or else a historically unlikely coalition in government.

In the previous election held in 2011, the voting public responded unequivocally to the economic crisis that hit Ireland in late 2008 by holding the then majority government Fianna Fail (Republican Party) ) accountable -- they lost 51 of their 71 seats.

Many voters would have voted against Fianna Fail for the first time in reaction to personal losses from the financial crisis, bucking decades-long family traditions since the Irish Civil War.

"Unlike in most other countries with a left-right divide, Irish political allegiances to the two largest political parties stem from civil war era loyalties," explained political scientist John O'Brennan at National University of Ireland, Maynooth.

The Irish economy has made steady gains since 2011 under the Fine Gael-Labor coalition government.

Following growth of 5.2 percent in 2014, Ireland remained the fastest growing economy of the European Union (EU) in 2015, with its gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 6.9 percent last year, the highest rise in the EU, according to the European Commission (EC), the EU's executive arm.

But despite the good news nationally, support for the incumbent government may not last through this election cycle, and Fianna Fail may gain back some of the support they lost in the previous election. There is dissatisfaction with how the budget is being allocated, and many have not seen the effects of growth. Despite campaign promises by incumbent Fine Gael (United Ireland Party) to "Keep the Recovery Going", the public remains skeptical.

"The electorate may want stable growth, but they are not adverse to a change in leadership. They may feel economic exclusion but not political exclusion," observed Dr. Adrian Kavanagh, a researcher on the geography of elections.

This dissatisfaction will significantly affect the minority partner in the incumbent coalition government.

"The minority party consistently bears the brunt of dissatisfaction with policy decisions," said Kavanagh. "By definition as a minority in coalition, they have to compromise their ideals and consequently disappoint their supporters."

Fine Gael is the largest party in Ireland in terms of members of the parliament. The party is the senior partner governing in a coalition with the Labor Party, with the Fine Gael party leader Enda Kenny serving as Taoiseach (prime minister).

Kavanagh also noted that the electorate boundary changes that go into effect for this election will adversely affect the Labor Party the most, and consequently the party has reduced their candidates significantly.

"It will a perfect storm -- everything that could go wrong seems to be going wrong for Labor in this election," said Kavanagh.

But neither will incumbent majority Fine Gael be able to leverage the consistent economic growth over their years in power into a significant victory in the polls, according to O'Brennan.

"Promises made in 2011 could not be fulfilled, and political reform did not occur despite the earthquake shake-up," he said.

For instance, one of the key elements proposed by the Fine Gael-Labor government in the last election focused on universal access to free healthcare.

"The government promised a new financing mechanism would be developed based on 'universal health insurance'," said Richard Layte, professor of sociology at Trinity College.

"Unfortunately, a recent and much anticipated ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute) report put the final nail in the coffin of the current plan as too costly and unworkable," said Layte.

"There is a lingering sense of mistrust and political exclusion among the electorate that political decisions such as instituting water charges are not being made in their name," said political sociologist Mary Murphy.

"This has led to structural disappointment among the electorate. On the one hand political candidates talk about responsible government rather than representative government, and on the other hand, the public are giving up political parties. Extreme populism is a trend across Europe, and this is visible in Ireland where there are a record number of independent candidates standing in this election, with an estimated 30 percent of votes going to them."

In actuality, the major parties are quite centrist and similar across their economic policy proposals.

Though low tax offerings that affect social service offerings are routinely rejected by Irish voters, voters opinions differ as to which social services should be funded. In this respect, voting for a specific party will not guarantee that issues specifically relevant to them -- such as affordable housing, roadworks, funding for university education, healthcare reform, or water charges -- will be addressed.

"Irish voters want personal accountability. They may tell pollsters that they do not support Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, but in the voting booth they look at an individual candidate and say 'this candidate is a great constituency worker who is responsive to me,' and they will cast their vote in favor of a candidate regardless of his or her party affiliation," Kavanagh said.

Hence the personal touch remains a key part of political success in a small country like Ireland, where politicians still spend time passing out election fliers on main thoroughfares and canvassing from door to door in their constituencies during the campaign season.

"I saw a candidate in my area walking up and down the street this morning at 8 a.m. I know he has a family and small children, and he is working so hard down to the last minute. So he is the guy I am going to vote for," said Elizabeth Gross, a voter in Monkstown, County Dublin who was on her way to the polling station Friday morning.

In an election as close as this one is turning out to be, polls based on party affiliation do not tell the whole story.

"This election will be one of the hardest to call, both in terms of actual results and speculating on potential coalitions," Kavanagh said. Endit