News Analysis: China's call for collective composure is ultimate antidote to DPRK dilemma -- experts

The increasingly tense situation on and around the Korean Peninsula is unlikely to be improved by short-term punitive measures, and dialogue, together with increased understanding, is the only way to achieve peace and security, experts said.

Conceding that the improved rocket technology of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) combined with continued nuclear tests could lead to the development of ballistic technology capable of delivering a nuclear payload to the American continent, political analyst Teruhisa Muramatsu told Xinhua that a show of force by the United States and its allies is equally fanning the flames of paranoia.

China's calls for calm were relevant, as China has diplomatic channels with Pyongyang, knows of the daily life of the DPRK citizens to a degree beyond any other regional or Western nation, and shares a long border with it, he said.

"The international community must recognize China's unique understanding of this predicament and its value not necessarily as a mediator or as a 'big brother,' but rather as a voice of reason in a situation that could quickly escalate if not handled in an equable or even-tempered way," Muramatsu said, adding that dialogue was key to this geopolitical problem.

"China and the United States, both veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council, are working together on a draft resolution and the most important part of this process has been the more than seven weeks of negotiations to bridge some differences and reach a consensus," he said.

"And this is a step in the right direction for relevant stakeholders to increase dialogue on the situation and refrain from 'knee jerk' measures that could lead to problems intensifying," Muramatsu said.

Also highlighting the complexity of the situation, other analysts have maintained that while every country has the right to defend itself, certain methods of defense can have the opposite effect.

"Prior to the DPRK's rocket launch earlier this month and following a fourth nuclear test in early January, countries, including Japan, South Korea and the United States, geared up militarily to defend themselves, as is their/our inalienable right, but the question now is will a massive ongoing show of force effect positive change?" asked Asian affairs commentator Kaoru Imori.

The ultimate goal must be a de-escalation of tension, not the opposite, he explained.

The Japanese expert, while noting that in some respects a show of force from the United States and South Korea in the face of a perceived threat was perfectly understandable, suggested that military deterrence should be commensurate to the actual threat.

Quoting defense analysts here, he said that the potential deployment of nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, front-role stealth fighters and other high-tech military assets for military exercises in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula would be perceived by the DPRK as a threat.

"And while it's down to respective governments to decide on how they train their forces, the where, when and why factor is always open to interpretation and this has to be factored into the pros and cons of the drills to take place next month, as well as the possible installation of a fixed THAAD anti-ballistic missile system in South Korea," he said.

He added that preparing for what could be interpreted as a preemptive strike against DPRK military and nuclear facilities, would, in all likelihood, intensify nerves to a point that what is currently a "vexatious" situation that could be settled through dialogue, could, unnecessarily turn from "cold" to "hot" very quickly.

Both Muramatsu and Imori believed that attack is not necessarily the best form of defense and that Japan itself has learned this in the hard way.

Muramatsu said that Japan historically has been both a perpetrator of ruthless violence and a victim and, as such, was well-placed to now expound the long-term virtues of dialogue-based resolution and collective composure, as being advocated by China.

"It's a balancing act; a very difficult one, but that said, this situation is nothing new and whether the DPRK poses an existential threat to its immediate neighbors or countries further afield needs to be continually monitored and, naturally, defensive precautions need to be taken," Muramatsu said.

"This is a time for cool heads to prevail, for the UNSC (UN Security Council) to lead resolutions on the matter, for bilateral and multilateral talks to be prioritized, and, for all parties to quash fears and not contribute to them," he said. Endi