News Analysis: Expecting some of the unexpected in Irish General Election

The election campaign period is drawing to a close as the Irish ready themselves to go to the polls this Friday to elect the 158 members of the Dail Eireann (House of Deputies), the lower house of the Irish parliament.

Polls continue to show the incumbent majority Fine Gael (United Ireland Party) at a consistent lead with percentage points hovering in the high 20s. However, support for Fine Gael's current coalition partner in government, the Labor Party has dwindled to the single digits in percentage points, suggesting that the current coalition would not be able to secure the 80 seat majority required to form a government.

Rising to a tight second place is the Fianna Fail (Republican Party), which suffered a crushing defeat in the previous election held in 2011, losing 51 of its 71 incumbent seats as a result of the voting public holding the party accountable for leading the country headlong into an economic collapse in late 2008, followed by adopting unpopular austerity measures instituted by the European Union. The party seems to be making a comeback this time around, with support polling at the mid-20s in percentage points in the final days before the election, fueling speculation that there may be a hung government with no clear majority.

Fianna Fail regaining its foothold in this election cycle has made it the dark horse in this race. In a latest poll conducted by the Irish state broadcaster RTE, Fianna Fail had been contending against Sinn Fein (We Ourselves) as the main opposition party in government. Both had been polling in the low teens until Fianna Fail pulled ahead this week.

As Ireland prepares to mark the 100th anniversary of the 1916 Easter Rising against British rule in Ireland, nationalist sentiments are running higher than usual, perhaps accounting for a surge in support for Sinn Fein, which had more than doubled its representation in the last election with 14 seats in government and is expected to make steady gains in this Friday's general election.

"Sinn Fein is an emerging party that is positioning itself as being left of center as it transforms itself from a military tradition to democracy," said Dr. Mary Murphy, a lecturer at Maynooth University Social Sciences Institute. "As this was the centennial of the 1916 uprising, one would have expected more language drumming up Sinn Fein's historical role in the campaign but the most of their rhetoric has focused on cuts in spending."

Economic recovery remains at the forefront of this election. With "Let's keep the recovery going" as an election slogan, Fine Gael's campaign manifesto outlines a focus on children and investment in the early years with better services for children. Fianna Fail calls attention to a perceived uneven distribution in the incumbent government's recovery measures with their slogan "An Ireland for All", and a manifesto that promises to target job creation, cost cutting, and improved public services, as well as tackling homelessness and crime. The Labor manifesto ("Standing up for Ireland's Future) outlined plans to focus on making homes affordable. While Sinn Fein ("For a Fair Recovery") highlights plans to replace the two-tier healthcare system to free universal healthcare for all.

"In terms of policy, Ireland's major political parties would be comparably similar and centrist in the European spectrum, with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael both being center right, and Sinn Fein and Labour center left," Dr. Murphy said. "Both Fine Fail and Fianna Gael are fiscally conservative, where their biggest political divide might be on cutting more taxes and reducing spending, or cutting less taxes and increasing spending."

Beyond the four traditional parties, this year's general elections in Ireland has seen a surge in the number of independent candidates, whose combined polling power equals that of the front runner Fine Gael. The majority of the independent candidates are running on single issue platforms that range from opposing the introduction of water charges, to repealing the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland in order to guarantee abortion rights for women, to fighting against austerity measures.

"Independent candidates appeal to people with a passion about specific issues," observed taxi driver Sean Dolan, 57. "They can call attention to these issues that might otherwise be ignored by the main parties."

In a year with the penultimate largest number of candidates in Irish history, where 552 candidates vie for 158 seats (reduced from 166 in the previous Dail Eireann) -- 169 are running as independents.

"The Irish political system makes it feasible for individual to stand as independent candidates," Dr. Murphy said. "There are more single issue candidates than ever in this election cycle, reflecting a distrust in traditional parties that seems to correspond with global trends."

"This makes the election outcome especially difficult to predict in terms of coalitions to form a majority government," she said.

The 2016 Irish general election will be the first election where all of the main political parties are required to have a minimum quota of 30 percent female candidates, and all have met this new gender quota. According to the Inter-Parliamentary Union ranking on women in national parliaments, Ireland is ranked number 88 with 15 percent representation, compared to the United Kingdom with 24 percent and the United States with 19.4 percent.

However, voter Una Nolan, 51, said that gender is not a key criteria for her in choosing candidates. "I prefer to vote for an effective person than base my choices on gender," she said.

Though Dr. Murphy agrees that voters would not necessarily prioritize gender in the ballot box, she believes requiring the political parties to put female candidates forward will have a positive overall effect on gender balance.

"The number of women in politics increased to 15 percent in the last election and it is expected that this number will rise to 21 percent in this election," she said. "It will take two or three electoral cycles to affect candidate quotas and we will begin to see real changes in gender representation over the next election." Endit