New Analysis: Why it is dangerous to misunderstand true origins of "Libyan refugees"

A misunderstanding of the true origins of the so-called "Libyan refugees" that has flooded Europe can be dangerous as it covers up a lucrative human trafficking trade which fuels the growth of terrorism in northern Africa.

Over the past several years, hundreds of thousands of refugees trod two major paths into Europe, one originating in Syria and the other in Libya.

Both countries fell victim to the regional chaos that began in 2010 and are still suffering from domestic conflict, leading to an easy conclusion that these two countries are home to most of the refugees.

But a scrutiny reveals that while the eastern route has been dominated by Syrians, Libyans are rarely found on dinghies crossing the Mediterranean.

Most of the so-called "Libyan refugees" are actually illegal migrants who crossed into Libya from various African countries and coughed up millions of dollars to traffickers with links to extremist groups, feeding the expansion of terrorism in northern Africa.

GATHERING POINT

In the first nine months of 2015, over 130,000 migrants set off from Libya to seek a better life in Europe.

Thousands gathered in the costal towns of Tajura and Garabulli every day, waiting to catch an overcrowded boat heading for southern Italy.

Most of the travellers were dark skinned, distinctively originating from sub-Saharan countries.

Coming from countries such as Mali, Niger, Somalia or Eritrea, they entered Libya through its porous southern border and finally ended up on the Libyan coast, where smuggling opportunities were abundant due to the state of anarchy there.

From the coast, the travelers embarked on a voyage toward the Italian island of Lampedusa. They had to cover a distance of 200 nautical miles (370 km) in several hours, but overloading and unfilled gas tanks led to frequent capsizings during the trips.

About 1,100 people died in sinking accidents in April 2015 alone, making the waterway one of the deadliest in the world.

As a matter of fact, few Libyans were among those travelers, as Libyans prefer to flee to neighboring Tunisia.

Tunisian media says about 1.5 to 2 million Libyans reside in Tunisia, while the Libyan Embassy in Tunisia put the number at 1 million.

POTENTIAL RISKS

Chronic poverty and turmoil in sub-Sahara countries and persistent chaos in Libya mean the flow of migrants braving the hazardous journey is likely to remain steady, adding to concerns that the human trafficking trade has become a major source of income for extremist groups in Libya.

The cost to travel to Europe is between 2,000 and 3,200 U.S. dollars for each person, allowing extremist groups to extract tens of millions of dollars to fund their campaign.

According to reports, the number of Islamic State (IS) fighters in Syria and Iraq has been reduced from 31,500 to 25,000 after world powers began striking IS positions there in 2014, whereas the number of IS fighters in northern Africa, especially in Libya, has doubled in the same period of time.

Western intelligence agencies believe that the IS branch in Libya is the group's most powerful overseas entity, and the only one that follows direct orders from IS headquarters, presumably in Raqqa, Syria.

So far, IS forces in Libya have captured the eastern city of Derna and the western city of Sirte, and pose a serious threat to major cities such as Benghazi and the capital city of Tripoli.

U.S. airforce on Friday struck an IS training camp in northwestern Libya, killing 41 people. This is the second raid the United States carried out in three months, reflecting the West's growing concern over the IS's rising influence.

The issue of illegal immigrants has many complications, including poverty, instability and violence, according to Mansour Shukri, a politics professor at the Tripoli University.

Blocking boats on the Mediterranean Sea can hardly address the problem at its root, he said, stressing the first step to tackle the issue is to understand the reality. Endi